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On sovereign credit migration: A study of alternative estimators and rating dynamics

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  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Kalotychou, Elena

Abstract

This paper investigates the finite-sample behaviour of sovereign credit migration estimators and analyzes the properties of the rating process. Through bootstrap simulations, we compare a discrete multinomial estimator and two continuous hazard rate methods which differ in that one neglects time-heterogeneity in the rating process whereas the other accounts for it. The study is based on Moody's ratings 1981-2004 for 72 industrialized and emerging economies. Hazard rate estimators yield more accurate default probabilities. The time homogeneity assumption leads to underestimating the default probability and greater migration risk is inferred upon relaxing it. There is evidence of duration dependence and downgrade momentum effects in the rating process. These findings have important implications for economic and regulatory capital allocation and for the pricing of credit sensitive instruments.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 51 (2007)
Issue (Month): 7 (April)
Pages: 3448-3469

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:51:y:2007:i:7:p:3448-3469

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 140-147, September.
  2. Chan, Ngai Hang & Wong, Hoi Ying & Zhao, Jing, 2012. "Structural model of credit migration," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3477-3490.
  3. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
  4. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
  5. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "Sovereign Ratings and Migrations: Emerging Markets," Working Papers 10009, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  6. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Default probability estimation in small samples - with an application to sovereign bonds," MPRA Paper 33778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2006. "Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1420-1441, November.
  8. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-97, June.
  9. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
  10. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Default probability estimation in small samples: With an application to sovereign bonds," Discussion Papers in Statistics and Econometrics 5/11, University of Cologne, Department for Economic and Social Statistics.
  11. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 45-55.
  12. Sumon Bhaumik & John S. Landon-Lane, 2007. "Directional Mobility of Ratings," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp900, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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