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Measurement and Estimation of Credit Migration Matrices

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Author Info
Til Schuermann
Yusuf Jafry

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Abstract

Credit migration matrices are cardinal inputs to many risk management applications. Their accurate estimation is therefore critical. We explore three approaches, cohort and two variants of duration—time homogeneous and non-homogeneous—and the resulting differences, both statistically through matrix norms and economically through credit portfolio and credit derivative models. We develop a testing procedure to assess statistically the differences between migration matrices using bootstrap techniques. The method can have substantial economic import: economic credit risk capital differences between economic regimes, recession vs. expansion, can be as large as difference implied by different estimation techniques. Ignoring the efficiency gain inherent in the duration methods by using the cohort method instead is more damaging that making a (possibly false) assumption of time-homogeneity.

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Paper provided by Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania in its series Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers with number 03-08.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:03-08

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Related research
Keywords: Credit risk; risk management; matrix norms; bootstrapping; credit derivatives;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Doron Kliger & Oded Sarig, 2000. "The Information Value of Bond Ratings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2879-2902, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  3. Robert B. Israel & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal & Jason Z. Wei, 2001. "Finding Generators for Markov Chains via Empirical Transition Matrices, with Applications to Credit Ratings," Mathematical Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 245-265. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1994. "The credit rating industry," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 1-26.
  5. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yusuf Jafry & Til Schuermann, 2003. "Metrics for Comparing Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lawrence J. White, 2001. "The Credit Rating Industry: An Industrial Organization Analysis," Working Papers 01-02, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Acharya, Viral V & Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K, 2002. "Pricing Credit Derivatives with Rating Transitions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yusuf Jafry & Til Schuermann, 2003. "Metrics for Comparing Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  2. Arnaud_de_Servigny & Norbert_Jobst, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Equity Default Swaps (I): Univariate Insights," International Finance 0503007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fernando Gonzalez & François Haas & Ronald Johannes & Mattias Persson & Liliana Toledo & Roberto Violi & Martin Wieland & Carmen Zins, 2004. "Market dynamics associated with credit ratings - a literature review," Occasional Paper Series 16, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Narcisa Kadlcakova & Joerg Keplinger, 2004. "Credit Risk and Bank Lending in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2004/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. Phillips, Jill & Katchova, Ani L., 2004. "Credit Score Migration Analysis Of Farm Businesses: Conditioning On Business Cycles And Migration Trends," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20136, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, . "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Featherstone, Allen & Langemeier, Michael & Haverkamp, Kent, 2006. "Credit Quality of Kansas Farms," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35309, Southern Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
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