The aim of this paper is to describe a new methodology to assess the risk of any Equity Default Swap (EDS). We show that as credit ratings can measure counter-party risk, it is technically possible to provide a quantitatively derived “through the cycle” risk estimate for EDSs. Whereas in the case of CDSs, the assessment is relevant at an issuer level, for EDSs it makes sense at an issue level. The reason for such a difference is that unlike for pure credit risk, the risk on EDSs directly depends on equity market conditions at origination and is therefore not fully counterparty specific. The outcome of this paper is that though this new methodology is purely quantitative, its level of performance is surprisingly high with superior results compared to previously developed techniques.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F3 - International Economics - - International Finance F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
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