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Confidence intervals for probabilities of default

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  • Hanson, Samuel
  • Schuermann, Til

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2006)
Issue (Month): 8 (August)
Pages: 2281-2301

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:30:y:2006:i:8:p:2281-2301

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References

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  1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  2. Treacy, William F. & Carey, Mark, 2000. "Credit risk rating systems at large US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-201, January.
  3. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
  4. Jose A. Lopez & Marc R. Saidenberg, 1999. "Evaluating credit risk models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November.
  6. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
  7. Vos, Paul W. & Hudson, Suzanne, 2005. "Evaluation Criteria for Discrete Confidence Intervals: Beyond Coverage and Length," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 59, pages 137-142, May.
  8. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
  9. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nikola Tarashev, 2009. "Measuring portfolio credit risk correctly: why parameter uncertainty matters," BIS Working Papers 280, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Andre Güttler & Peter Raupach, 2010. "The Impact of Downward Rating Momentum," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 1-23, February.
  3. Janet Mitchell & Patrick Van Roy, 2007. "Failure prediction models : performance, disagreements, and internal rating systems," Working Paper Research 123, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Samuel Hanson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann, 2005. "Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification," CESifo Working Paper Series 1531, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Smith, Brent C, 2011. "Stability in consumer credit scores: Level and direction of FICO score drift as a precursor to mortgage default and prepayment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 285-298.
  6. Güttler, André & Raupach, Peter, 2008. "The impact of downward rating momentum on credit portfolio risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Henry Dannenberg, 2011. "The Importance of Estimation Uncertainty in a Multi-Rating Class Loan Portfolio," IWH Discussion Papers 11, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Adam B. Ashcraft & Til Schuermann, 2008. "Understanding the securitization of subprime mortgage credit," Staff Reports 318, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Henry Dannenberg, 2009. "Berücksichtigung von Schätzunsicherheit bei der Kreditrisikobewertung: Vergleich des Value at Risk der Verlustverteilung des Kreditrisikos bei Verwendung von Bootstrapping und einem asymptotischen A," IWH Discussion Papers 3, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Dimitris Gavalas & Theodore Syriopoulos, 2014. "Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 122-143, March.
  11. Schechtman, Ricardo, 2013. "Default matrices: A complete measurement of banks’ consumer credit delinquency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 460-474.
  12. Mahlmann, Thomas, 2006. "Estimation of rating class transition probabilities with incomplete data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3235-3256, November.
  13. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," MPRA Paper 30507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Livingston, Miles & Naranjo, Andy & Zhou, Lei, 2008. "Split bond ratings and rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1613-1624, August.
  15. Stefanescu, Catalina & Tunaru, Radu & Turnbull, Stuart, 2009. "The credit rating process and estimation of transition probabilities: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 216-234, March.
  16. Orth, Walter, 2013. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-222.
  17. Rodriguez, Adolfo & Trucharte, Carlos, 2007. "Loss coverage and stress testing mortgage portfolios: A non-parametric approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 342-367, December.
  18. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Default probability estimation in small samples - with an application to sovereign bonds," MPRA Paper 33778, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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