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Firm Heterogeneity and Credit Risk Diversification

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Author Info
Samuel Hanson
M. Hashem Pesaran ()
Til Schuermann ()

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Abstract

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risks and the nature of firm heterogeneity. The theoretical results obtained indicate that if firm-specific risk exposures (including their default thresholds) are heterogeneous but come from a common parameter distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction through active credit portfolio management. However, if the firm risk exposures are draws from different parameter distributions, say for different sectors or countries, then further risk reduction is possible, even asymptotically, by changing the portfolio weights. In either case, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to underestimation of expected losses. But, once expected losses are controlled for, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to overestimation of risk, whether measured by unexpected loss or value-at-risk. The theoretical results are confirmed empirically using returns and credit ratings for firms in the U.S. and Japan across seven sectors. Ignoring parameter heterogeneity results in far riskier credit portfolios.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1531.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1531

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Related research
Keywords: risk management; correlated defaults; heterogeneity; diversification; portfolio choice;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Til Schuermann & Bjoern-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jafry, Yusuf & Schuermann, Til, 2004. "Measurement, estimation and comparison of credit migration matrices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2603-2639, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 745, Econometric Society.
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  17. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrea Cipollini & Giuseppe Missaglia, 2008. "Measuring bank capital requirements through Dynamic Factor analysis," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 010, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler, 2005. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. cipollini, andrea & missaglia, giuseppe, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," MPRA Paper 3582, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. David K. Musto & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "A Portfolio View of Consumer Credit," NBER Working Papers 11735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2008. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Klaus Düllmann & Nancy Masschelein, 2007. "A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 55-79, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fecht, Falko & Grüner, Hans Peter & Hartmann, Philipp, 2008. "Financial integration, specialization and systemic risk," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,23, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nikola Tarashev & Haibin Zhu, 2008. "Specification and Calibration Errors in Measures of Portfolio Credit Risk: The Case of the ASRF Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 129-173, June. [Downloadable!]
  9. George Kapetanios & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Alternative Approaches to Estimation and Inference in Large Multifactor Panels: Small Sample Results with an Application to Modelling of Asset Returns," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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