Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations

Contents:

Author Info

  • Jacobson, Tor
  • Kindell, Rikard
  • Lindé, Jesper
  • Roszbach, Kasper F.

Abstract

This paper studies the relation between macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate defaults while conditioning on industry affiliation and an extensive set of firm-specific factors. Using a multiperiod logit approach on a panel data set for all incorporated Swedish businesses over 1990-2002, we find strong evidence for a substantial and stable impact of aggregate fluctuations. Macroeffects differ across industries in an economically intuitive way. Out-of-sample evaluations show our approach is superior to both models that exclude macro information and best fitting naive forecasting models. While firm-specific factors are useful in ranking firms' relative riskiness, macroeconomic factors capture fluctuations in the absolute risk level.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cepr.org/pubs/dps/DP7083.asp
Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7083.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7083

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820

Order Information:
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Business cycles; Default; Default-risk model; Logit model; Macroeconomic variables; Micro-data;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  2. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
  3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1993. "The role of credit market imperfections in the monetary transmission mechanism: arguments and evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Sydney Ludvigson, 1996. "The channel of monetary transmission to demand: evidence from the market for automobile credit," Research Paper 9625, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1987. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 2318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  7. Carling, Kenneth & Rönnegård, Lars & Roszbach, Kasper, 2004. "Is Firm Interdependence within Industries Important for Portfolio Credit Risk?," Working Paper Series 168, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  9. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
  10. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  11. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
  12. Ayyagari, M. & Beck, T.H.L. & Demirgüç-Kunt, A., 2007. "Small and medium enterprises across the globe," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-4731699, Tilburg University.
  13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  14. Ayyagari, Meghana & Beck, Thorsten & Demirguc-Kunt, Asl, 2003. "Small and medium enterprises across the globe : a new database," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3127, The World Bank.
  15. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  16. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Dirk Hackbarth & Jianjun Miao & Erwan Morellec, 2005. "Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions," CEMA Working Papers 439, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
  18. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
  19. Repullo,R. & Suarez,J., 1996. "Entrepreneurial Moral Hazard and Bank Monitoring: A Model of the Credit Channel," Papers 9604, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  20. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
  21. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
  22. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
  23. Laitila, Thomas, 1993. "A pseudo-R2 measure for limited and qualitative dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 341-355, April.
  24. Samolyk, Katherine A., 1994. "Banking conditions and regional economic performance evidence of a regional credit channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 259-278, October.
  25. William Poole, 1993. "Credit veils and credit realities," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 83-85.
  26. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
  27. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
  28. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
  29. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1991. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 3892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Altman, Edward I., 1984. "The success of business failure prediction models : An international survey," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 171-198, June.
  31. Frydman, Halina & Altman, Edward I & Kao, Duen-Li, 1985. " Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 269-91, March.
  32. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  33. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
  34. Edward I. Altman, 1973. "Predicting Railroad Bankruptcies in America," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 184-211, Spring.
  35. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  36. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
  37. Blume, Marshall E & Keim, Donald B & Patel, Sandeep A, 1991. " Returns and Volatility of Low-Grade Bonds: 1977-1989," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 49-74, March.
  38. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  39. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  40. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
  41. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Altman, Edward I, 1971. "Railroad Bankruptcy Propensity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 333-45, May.
  43. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1991. "A note on the use of industry-relative ratios in bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1183-1194, December.
  44. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 2001. "An analysis and critique of the BIS proposal on capital adequacy and ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 25-46, January.
  45. Mark Carey, 1998. "Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1363-1387, 08.
  46. Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  47. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
  48. Calomiris, Charles W & Hubbard, R Glenn, 1989. "Price Flexibility, Credit Availability, and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from the United States, 1894-1909," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(3), pages 429-52, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2007. "Introducing Financial Frictions and Unemployment into a Small Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 214, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2011.
  2. Orth, Walter, 2013. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-222.
  3. González-Aguado, Carlos & Suarez, Javier, 2011. "Interest Rates and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Leonard I. Nakamura & Kasper Roszbach., 2013. "Credit ratings and bank monitoring ability," Working Papers 13-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Konstantin Belyaev & Aelita Belyaeva & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Martin Vojtek, 2012. "Macroeconomic Factors as Drivers of LGD Prediction: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2012/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Lana Ivicic & Sasa Cerovac, 2009. "Credit Risk Assessment of Corporate Sector in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 373-399.
  7. Orth, Walter, 2011. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," MPRA Paper 30507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ongena, Steven & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2013. "“When the cat's away the mice will play”: Does regulation at home affect bank risk-taking abroad?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 727-750.
  9. Ángela González Arbeláez, 2010. "Determinantes del riesgo del crédito comercial en Colombia," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008215, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
  10. Quiroz, Matias & Villani, Mattias, 2013. "Dynamic mixture-of-experts models for longitudinal and discrete-time survival data," Working Paper Series 268, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  11. Ferreira Filipe, Sara & Grammatikos, Theoharry & Michala, Dimitra, 2014. "Forecasting Distress in European SME Portfolios," MPRA Paper 53572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & von Schedvin , Erik & Villani, Mattias, 2011. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Working Paper Series 256, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.