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Is Firm Interdependence within Industries Important for Portfolio Credit Risk?

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Author Info

  • Carling, Kenneth

    ()
    (IFAU, Uppsala and Dalarna University)

  • Rönnegård, Lars

    ()
    (Dalarna University)

  • Roszbach, Kasper

    ()
    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

A drawback of available portfolio credit risk models is that they fail to allow for default risk dependency across loans other than through common risk factors. Thereby, thesemodels ignore that close ties can exist between companies due to legal, financial and business relations. In this paper, we integrate the insights from theoretical models of default correlation into a commonly used model of default and portfolio credit risk by allowing for dependency between firm default risk through both common factors and industry specific errors in a duration model. An application using pooled data from two Swedish banks’ business loan portfolios over the period 1996-2000 shows that estimates of individual default risk are little affected by including industry specific errors. However, accounting for these industry effects increases VaR estimates by 50-200 percent. A traditional model with only systematic factors, although able to fit the broad trends in credit losses, cannot match these fluctuations because it fails to capture credit losses in bad times, when banks are typically hit by large unexpected credit losses. The model we propose manages to follow both the trend in credit losses and produce industry driven, time-varying, fluctuations in losses around that trend. Consequently, this model will better aid banks and regulators in determining the appropriate size of economic capital requirements. Capital buffers derived from our model will be larger for periods with large ”aggregate” disturbances and smaller in better times, and avoid both overcapitalization in good times and undercapitalization in bad times.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 168.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0168

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Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
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Related research

Keywords: value-at-risk; credit risk; portfolio credit risk; duration model; default correlation; industry dependency; cluster errors;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2004. "Credit Risk versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Working Paper Series 162, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  2. Jacobson, Tor & Kindell, Rikard & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper F., 2008. "Firm Default and Aggregate Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 7083, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Vanini, Paolo, 2007. "A simple model of credit contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2475-2492, August.
  4. Carling, Kenneth & Alam, Moudud, 2007. "Computationally feasible estimation of the covariance structure in Generalized linear mixed models(GLMM)," Working Papers 2007:14, Örebro University, School of Business.
  5. Barro, Diana & Basso, Antonella, 2010. "Credit contagion in a network of firms with spatial interaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 459-468, September.
  6. Diana Barro & Antonella Basso, 2006. "A credit contagion model for loan portfolios in a network of firms with spatial interaction," Working Papers 143, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.

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