Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards
AbstractUnemployment durations are generally modelled by specifying the conditional probability of leaving unemployment (the hazard function). Existing studies for Britain all use very restrictive parametric specifications of the hazard function, mostly commonly Weibull in form. These restrictions potentially bias the estimated effects, particuarly those of the time-varying economic variables and the baseline hazard. This paper investigates models for the probability of leaving unemployment with these restrictions removed. We use semi-parametric methods to estimate models with completely unrestricted baseline hazards and a model involving flexible step-function approximations to the baseline hazard. The Weibull is found not to give a satisfactory representation of the baseline hazard and its use is found to distort the pattern of unemployment income effects over the length of the spell. The existing studies for Britain is also model the exit probability from unemployment rather than the probability of entering a job, despite generally interpreting the evidence as being about the latter probability. We use a competing risks model to distinguish exit into employment from exit into alternative states. We find that the single risk model of exit understates the effects of income in and out of work on the probability of entering a job.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Warwick, Department of Economics in its series The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) with number 331.
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: 1989
Date of revision:
unemployment ; risk ; duration ; evaluation;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helen Neal).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.