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Re-Employment Probabilities over the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Guido W. Imbens () (Harvard University and NBER)
Lisa M. Lynch () (Tufts University, NBER and IZA Bonn)

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Abstract

Using a Cox proportional hazard model that allows for a flexible time dependence in order to incorporate business cycle effects, we analyze the determinants of reemployment probabilities of young workers in the U.S. from 1978-1989. We find considerable changes in the chances of young workers finding jobs over the business cycle despite the fact that personal characteristics of those starting jobless spells do not vary much over time. Therefore, government programs that target specific demographic groups may change individuals’ positions within the queue of job seekers, but may only have a more limited impact on average re-employment probabilities. Living in an area with high local unemployment reduces re-employment chances as does being in a long spell of nonemployment. However, the damage associated with being in a long spell seems to be reduced somewhat if a worker is unemployed in an area with high overall unemployment.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 2167.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2167

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Related research
Keywords: unemployment duration dependence business cycle

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dynarski, Mark & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1990. "The Behavior of Unemployment Durations over the Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 350-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Blank, Rebecca M & Card, David E, 1991. "Recent Trends in Insured and Uninsured Unemployment: Is There an Explanation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1157-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Heckman, J & Singer, B, 1984. "The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2), pages 231-41, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael R. Darby & John C. Haltiwanger & Mark W. Plant, 1985. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Honore, Bo E, 1990. "Simple Estimation of a Duration Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 453-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. van den Berg, Gerard J. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2001. "Combining micro and macro unemployment duration data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 271-309, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  13. Lisa M. Lynch, 1989. "Private Sector Training and its Impact on the Earnings of Young Workers," NBER Working Papers 2872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The cyclicality of hires, separations, and job-to-job transitions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 493-508. [Downloadable!]
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  17. repec:fth:harver:1515 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  20. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1991. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers," NBER Reprints 1582, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Other versions:
  21. Lynch, Lisa M, 1991. "The Role of Off-the-Job vs. On-the-Job Training for the Mobility of Women Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 151-56, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, 2007. "Using unexpected recalls to examine the long-term earnings effects of job displacement," Working Papers 07-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 2004. "Another look at unemployment duration: exit to a permanent vs. a temporary job," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 285-314, May. [Downloadable!]
  3. Knut Roed & Tao Zhang, 2003. "Does Unemployment Compensation Affect Unemployment Duration?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 190-206, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stepan Jurajda & Frederick J. Tannery, 2001. "Unemployment Durations and Extended Unemployment Benefits in Local Labor Markets," Labor and Demography 0012006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  6. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Stepan Jurajda, 2001. "Unemployment Outflow and Unemployment Insurance Taxes," Labor and Demography 0012005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Stepan Jurajda, 2001. "In ow into Unemployment: Employment Spells and Unemployment Insurance," Labor and Demography 0012008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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