Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Muriel Dejemeppe

    (Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique and Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium)

  • Bart Cockx

    (Département des Sciences Economiques and Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium)

Abstract

On the basis of aggregate data for the early 1990s, we analyse the determinants of unemployment duration for laid-off male workers in Wallonia (Belgium). Our results indicate that if ranking in recruitment occurs, the standard mixed proportional hazard specification can be too restrictive, leading to an overstatement of the extent of true negative duration dependence. We conclude that negative duration dependence is largely spurious. We also decompose the time variation of the hazard in (unobserved) compositional and direct cyclical and seasonal effects. We find counter-cyclical variation in the quality of young workers, but none for the prime aged. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.761
File Function: Link to full text; subscription required
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2005-v20.1/
File Function: Supporting data files and programs
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-23

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:1:p:1-23

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/jcatalog/subscribe.jsp?issn=0883-7252

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2007. "The Unobserved Heterogeneity Distribution in Duration Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 6219, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1998. "The Causes and Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0400, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Cockx, Bart & Ridder, Geert, 2001. "Social Employment of Welfare Recipients in Belgium: An Evaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(470), pages 322-52, April.
  4. Blanchard, O.J. & Diamond, P., 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, And Wages," Working papers 546, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. d’Addio, Anna Cristina, 1998. "Unemployment Durations of French Young People," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1998021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-050/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Stephen W. Salant, 1974. "Search theory and duration data: a theory of sorts," Special Studies Papers 42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours, 1999. "Duration dependence and heterogeneity in French youth unemployment durations," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 273-285.
  9. Abbring, J.H. & Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1994. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," Serie Research Memoranda 0024, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  10. Gérard VAN DEN BERG & Gijsbert VAN LOMWEL & Jan VAN OURS, 2003. "Unemployment Dynamics and Age," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 70, pages 1-29.
  11. Michael R. Darby & John Haltiwanger & Mark Plant, 1984. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under RAtional Expectations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 339, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. repec:fth:louvco:9851 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Michael Rosholm, 2001. "Cyclical variations in unemployment duration," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 173-191.
  15. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  16. Baker, Michael & Melino, Angelo, 2000. "Duration dependence and nonparametric heterogeneity: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 357-393, June.
  17. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
  18. Ridder, Geert, 1990. "The Non-parametric Identification of Generalized Accelerated Failure-Time Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(2), pages 167-81, April.
  19. Bart L. W. Cockx, 2000. "Analysis Of Transition Data By The Minimum-Chi-Square Method: An Application To Welfare Spells In Belgium," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 392-405, August.
  20. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
  21. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 239-53, January.
  22. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
  23. Muriel Dejemeppe, 2005. "A Complete Decomposition of Unemployment Dynamics using Longitudinal Grouped Duration Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 47-70, 02.
  24. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  25. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March.
  26. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
  27. Dynarski, Mark & Sheffrin, Steven M, 1990. "The Behavior of Unemployment Durations over the Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 350-56, May.
  28. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Pieter Serneels, 2008. "Unemployment duration, job search and labour market segmentation Evidence from urban Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2008-17, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  2. repec:ese:iserwp:2008-24 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Bart COCKX & Matteo PICCHIO, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Bemjamin Villena-Roldan, 2009. "Aggregate Implications of Employer Search and Recruiting Selection," 2009 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Cockx, Bart, 1999. "The Design of Active Labour Market Policies. What Matters and What Doesn't ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1999035, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  6. Van der Linden, Bruno, 2005. "Equilibrium Evaluation of Active Labor Market Programmes Enhancing Matching Effectiveness," IZA Discussion Papers 1526, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Michal Franta, 2008. "Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data," Working Papers 2008/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Niedergesäss, Markus, 2013. "Employment, partnership and childbearing decisions of German women and men: A simultaneous hazards approach," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 51, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  9. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
  10. Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
  11. Gabriele, CARDULLO & Bruno, VANDERLINDEN, 2006. "Employment subsidies and substitutable skills : An equilibrium matching approach," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006010, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  12. Maes, Marjan, 2008. "poverty persistence among belgian elderly: true or spurious?," Working Papers 2008/10, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
  13. Marjan, MAES, 2008. "Poverty persistence among Belgian elderly in the transition from work to retirement : an empirical analysis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008042, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  14. Ana Luísa Abras & Fabiana de Felício, 2005. "Duração E Taxa De Saída Do Desemprego: Evidências De Ausência De Dependência Na Duração Para As Regiões Metropolitanas Do Brasil (1984-2000)," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 169, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:20:y:2005:i:1:p:1-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.