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Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment Using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data

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  • Güell, Maia
  • Hu, Luojia

Abstract

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analysing the probability of leaving un-employment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features: (1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and (2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflow composition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposed estimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyse the changes in distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a period of labour market reform. We find that the relative probability of leaving unemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployed becomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3957.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3957

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Keywords: duration analysis; GMM; repeated cross-section data; unemployment;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Usabiaga & Fernando Núñez & Pablo Álvarez de Toledo, 2013. "Segmentación del mercado de trabajo, clusters, movilidad y duración de desempleo con datos individuales," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2013/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  2. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2014. "An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 252-267.
  3. Stephen Bazen & Xavier Joutard & Mouhamadou M. Niang, 2012. "The Duration-Based Measurement of Unemployment: Estimation Issues and an Application to Male-Female Unemployment Differences in France," Working Papers halshs-00793056, HAL.
  4. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
  5. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2013. "Labour Market Segmentation, Clusters, Mobility and Unemployment Duration with Individual Microdata," MPRA Paper 46003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó & Coral del Río, 2012. "Unemployment and Spell Duration during the Great Recession in the EU," Working Papers 1205, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
  7. Bemjamin Villena-Roldan, 2009. "Aggregate Implications of Employer Search and Recruiting Selection," 2009 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "House lock and structural unemployment," Working Paper Series 2012-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Céspedes, Nikita & Gutiérrez, Ana Paola & Belapatiño, Vanessa, 2013. "Determinantes de la duración del desempleo en una economía con alta informalidad," Working Papers 2013-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  10. Seik Kim, . "Economic Assimilation of Foreign-Born Workers in the United States: An Overlapping Rotating Panel Analysis," Working Papers UWEC-2008-19, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  11. Seik Kim, . "Sample Attrition in the Presence of Population Attrition," Working Papers UWEC-2009-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  12. Valletta, Robert G., 2012. "House Lock and Structural Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 7002, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  13. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter, 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
  14. Bruce Meyer & Robert Goerge, 2011. "Errors in Survey Reporting and Imputation and Their Effects on Estimates of Food Stamp Program Participation," Working Papers 11-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  15. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements in and out of poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5550, The World Bank.

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