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Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle

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  • Olympia Bover

    (Banco de Espana CEMFI, Madrid.)

  • Manuel Arellano

    (Banco de Espana CEMFI, Madrid.)

  • Samuel Bentolila

    (Banco de Espana CEMFI, Madrid.)

Abstract

In this paper we study the effects of unemployment benefit duration and the business cycle on unemployment duration. We construct durations for individuals entering unemployment from a longitudinal sample of Spanish men in 1987--94. Estimated discrete hazard models indicate that receipt of unemployment benefits significantly reduces the hazard of leaving unemployment. At durations of three months, when the largest effects occur, the hazard for workers without benefits is twice as large as that for workers with benefits. Favourable business conditions increase the hazard of leaving unemployment. At sample-period magnitudes, this effect is significantly smaller than that of benefit receipt. Copyright 2002 Royal Economic Society

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 112 (2002)
Issue (Month): 479 (April)
Pages: 223-265

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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:112:y:2002:i:479:p:223-265

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  1. Atkinson, Anthony B & Micklewright, John, 1991. "Unemployment Compensation and Labor Market Transitions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1679-1727, December.
  2. Ahn, Namkee & Ugidos-Olazabal, Arantza, 1995. "Duration of Unemployment in Spain: Relative Effects of Unemployment Benefit and Family Characteristics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(2), pages 249-64, May.
  3. Moffitt, Robert & Nicholson, Walter, 1982. "The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment: The Case of Federal Supplemental Benefits," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 1-11, February.
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  7. Costas Meghir & Whitehouse, E, 1995. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," IFS Working Papers W95/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  9. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July.
  10. Katz, Lawrence F. & Meyer, Bruce D., 1990. "The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 45-72, February.
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  12. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-81, Oct.-Dec..
  13. Imbens, Guido W. & Lynch, Lisa M., 2006. "Re-Employment Probabilities over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 2167, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990. "The Cyclical Behovior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 85-156.
  15. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January.
  16. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
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