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Re-Employment Probabilities over the Business Cycle

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  • Guido W. Imbens
  • Lisa M. Lynch

Abstract

Using a Cox proportional hazard model that allows for a flexible time dependence that can incorporate both seasonal and business cycle effects, we analyze the determinants of re-employment probabilities of young workers from 1978-1989. We find considerable changes in the chances of young workers finding jobs over the business cycle, however, the characteristics of those starting jobless spells do not vary much over time. Therefore, government programs that target specific demographic groups may change individuals' positions within the queue of job seekers but will probably have a more limited impact on the overall re-employment probability. Living in an area with high local unemployment reduces re-employment chances as does being in a long spell of non-employment. However, when we allow for an interaction between the length of time of a jobless spell and the local unemployment rate we find the interaction term is positive. In other words, while workers appear to be scarred by a long spell of unemployment, the damage seems to be reduced if they are unemployed in an area with high overall unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4585.

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Date of creation: Dec 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4585

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Stepan Jurajda, 2001. "In ow into Unemployment: Employment Spells and Unemployment Insurance," Labor and Demography 0012008, EconWPA.
  2. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2012. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 18387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  4. Tatsiramos, K. & Ours, J.C. van, 2012. "Labor Market Effects of Unemployment Insurance Design," Discussion Paper 2012-082, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Stepan Jurajda, 2001. "Unemployment Outflow and Unemployment Insurance Taxes," Labor and Demography 0012005, EconWPA.
  6. Pieter Serneels, 2008. "Unemployment duration, job search and labour market segmentation.� Evidence from urban Ethiopia," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2008-17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Bover, O. & Arellano, M. & Bentolila, S., 1997. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration, and the Business Cycle," Papers 9717, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  8. Knut Roed & Tao Zhang, 2003. "Does Unemployment Compensation Affect Unemployment Duration?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 190-206, January.
  9. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 2004. "Another look at unemployment duration: exit to a permanent vs. a temporary job," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 285-314, May.
  10. Canziani, Patrizia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2001. "Firing costs and stigma: A theoretical analysis and evidence from microdata," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1877-1906, December.
  11. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
  12. Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, 2007. "Using unexpected recalls to examine the long-term earnings effects of job displacement," Working Papers 07-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  13. Stepan Jurajda & Frederick J. Tannery, 2001. "Unemployment Durations and Extended Unemployment Benefits in Local Labor Markets," Labor and Demography 0012006, EconWPA.
  14. Nikita Céspedes & Ana Paola Gutiérrez & Vanessa Belapatiño, 2014. "Determinantes de la duración del desempleo en una economía con alta informalidad," Working Papers 2014-2, Peruvian Economic Association.
  15. Conefrey, Thomas & McCarthy, Yvonne & Sherman, Martina, 2013. "Re-employment Probabilities for Unemployed Workers in Ireland," Economic Letters 06/EL/13, Central Bank of Ireland.
  16. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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