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Unemployment Dynamics, Duration and Equilibrium: Evidence from Britain

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  • Simon Burgess
  • H Turon

Abstract

This paper challenges the consensus on the nature of unemployment dynamics in Britain. We show that the argument that changes in unemployment arise mostly from changes in the duration of unemployment (rather than in the chance of becoming unemployed) is flawed. In fact, while shocks to the outflow do have a part to play up to the late 1970s, the huge changes in unemployment over the last two decades have been mostly driven by inflow shocks. Our model also provides a new explanation of aggregate unemployment persistence based on externalities at a market level rather than individual-level persistence.

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File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/DP0474.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0474.

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Date of creation: Nov 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0474

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Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

Related research

Keywords: Unemployment dynamics; unemployment duration; unemployment flows; nonlinear dynamics; persistence;

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  1. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata, 2000. "Employment Patterns in OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0448, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. B Bell & Stephen Nickell & Glenda Quintini, 2000. "Wage Equations, Wage Curves and All That," CEP Discussion Papers dp0472, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Patricia M. Anderson & Simon M. Burgess, 1995. "Empirical Matching Functions: Estimation and Interpretation Using Disaggregate Data," NBER Working Papers 5001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Donald Robertson & James Symons, 2000. "Factor Residuals in SUR Regressions: Estimating Panels Allowing for Cross Sectional Correlation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0473, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Simon Burgess & Julia Lane & David Stevens, 1996. "Job Flows, Worker Flows and Churning," Labor and Demography 9604004, EconWPA.
  6. M Dabrowski & Stanislaw Gomulka & J Rostowski, 2000. "Whence Reform? A Critique of the Stiglitz Perspective," CEP Discussion Papers dp0471, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86874, Tilburg University.
  8. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
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