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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment

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Author Info
Abbring, Jaap H
van den Berg, Gerard J
van Ours, Jan C

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Abstract

In the past decades several features of US unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial approach of previous studies this paper takes all elements of unemployment dynamics simultaneously into account. We find that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are driven by variations in the incidence, individual exit probabilities and the composition of the inflow into unemployment. We also find negative duration dependence of the unemployment exit rate, which can be attributed to employers ranking workers according to the length of their unemployment spell.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1702.

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Date of creation: Oct 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1702

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycle; Sorting Ranking; Unemployment Composition; Unemployment Duration;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Michael R. Darby & John C. Haltiwanger & Mark W. Plant, 1985. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991. "Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence," NBER Working Papers 3664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1979-1), pages 13-72. [Downloadable!]
  4. Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-57, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pieter Serneels, 2004. "Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed," Development and Comp Systems 0409013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  3. Bat COCKX & Muriel DEJEMEPPE, 2002. "Do the Higher Educated Unemployed Crowd out the Lower Educated Ones in a Competition for Jobs ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002. "Duration Dependence in the Exit Rate out of Unemployment in Belgium: Is It True or Spurious?," IZA Discussion Papers 632, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Abbring, J.H. & Berg, G.J. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1999. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," Discussion Paper 81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Antoine Bommier & Thierry Magnac & Muriel Roger, 2000. "Le marché du travail à l’approche de la retraite : évolutions en France entre 1982 et 1999," Research Unit Working Papers 0211, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquee, INRA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Turon, Hélène, 2003. "Separability of Duration Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 754, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Marcelle Chauvet & Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2001. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Staff Reports 132, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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