Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment
AbstractIn the past decades several features of US unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial approach of previous studies this paper takes all elements of unemployment dynamics simultaneously into account. We find that cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are driven by variations in the incidence, individual exit probabilities and the composition of the inflow into unemployment. We also find negative duration dependence of the unemployment exit rate, which can be attributed to employers ranking workers according to the length of their unemployment spell.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1702.
Date of creation: Oct 1997
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
Other versions of this item:
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 2001. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 436-48, October.
- Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-050/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Abbring, J.H. & Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1999. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Discussion Paper 1999-65, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Abbring, Jaap H. & Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1997. "Business cycles and compositional variation in U.S. unemployment," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
- Carlson, John A & Horrigan, Michael W, 1983. "Measures of Unemployment Duration as Guides to Research and Policy: Comment [An Experience-Weighted Measure of Employment and Unemployment Duration]," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 1143-50, December.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994.
"Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," NBER Working Papers 3387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, O.J. & Diamond, P., 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, And Wages," Working papers 546, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-57, November.
- George A. Akerlof & Brian G. M. Main, 1978.
"Unemployment spells and unemployment experience,"
Special Studies Papers
123, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996.
"Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
- Darby, Michael R & Haltiwanger, John C & Plant, Mark W, 1985.
"Unemployment Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment under Rational Expectations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 614-37, September.
- Michael R. Darby & John C. Haltiwanger & Mark W. Plant, 1985. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael R. Darby & John Haltiwanger & Mark Plant, 1984. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under RAtional Expectations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 339, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1991.
"Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 277-92, August.
- Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86874, Tilburg University.
- Sider, Hal, 1985. "Unemployment Duration and Incidence: 1968-82," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 461-72, June.
- Baker, Michael, 1992. "Digit preference in CPS unemployment data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 117-121, May.
- Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.