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Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs ?

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  • Bart COCKX

    (GHENT UNIVERSITY, Sherppa and UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

  • Matteo PICCHIO

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES))

Abstract

This paper assesses whether short-lived jobs (lasting one quarter or less and involuntarily ending in unemployment) are stepping stones to long-lastinc jobs (enduring one year or more) for Belgian long-term unemployed school-leavers. We proceed in two steps. First, we estimate labour market trajectories in a multi-spell duration model that incorporates lagged duration and occurrence dependence. Second, we simulate them to find that (fe)male school-leavers accepting a short-lived job are, within two years, 13.4 (9.5) percentage points more likely to find a long-lastng job than in the counterfactual in which they reject short-lived jobs to search longer for more stable positions

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) with number 2009004.

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Length: 38
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2009004

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Keywords: Event history model; transition data; state dependence; short-lived jobs; stepping stone effect; long-lasting jobs;

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