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Do Fixed-Term Contracts Increase the Long-Term Employment Opportunities of the Unemployed?

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Author Info
Hagen, Tobias
Abstract

The paper investigates whether (unsubsidised) fixed-term contracts (FTCs) are a means of integration for the unemployed in the West German labour market. This is done by analysing whether entering into an FTC improves the employment opportunities of an unemployed person in terms of the probability of subsequent permanent contracts and subsequent periods of employment and unemployment. The empirical analysis is based on propensity score matching methods, obtaining the effects of FTCs by comparing the future situation of (?treated?) unemployed entering into FTCs after a particular unemployment duration with a suitable control group of ?non-treated? individuals. In principal different counterfactual situations for treated persons entering into FTCs after a certain number of month of unemployment are reasonable. A first counterfactual is never to enter into an FTC. A second counterfactual is not to take up an FTC job in this month but possibly in a later month. These two possible counterfactuals imply different definitions for the group of non-treated individuals and impose different policy questions. Both definitions are analysed in the paper. The propensity score is estimated by a discrete hazard rate model, which seems to be an appropriate way of taking into account the potential endogenous effect of the unemployment duration on the selection into the type of contract. Further insights are gained by comparing the determinants of the transition to FTC and permanent contract jobs. There is some evidence that FTCs may serve as ?stepping stones? towards permanent employment for the unemployed. However, the hypothesis that FTCs lead to dual labour markets cannot be rejected. --

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-49.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1358

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Related research
Keywords: Fixed-term Contracts; Propensity Score Matching; Hazard Rate Model; Unemployment Duration; Stepping Stones; Dual Labour Markets;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fabio Berton & Francesco Devicienti & Lia Pacelli, 2009. "Are Temporary Jobs a Port of Entry into Permanent Employment? Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 6, University of Torino, Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato". [Downloadable!]
  2. Zijl, Marloes & van den Berg, Gerard J & Heyma, Arjan, 2004. "Stepping-stones for the unemployed: The effect of temporary jobs on the duration until regular work," Working Paper Series 2004:19, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marloes de Graaf-Zijl, 2005. "Compensation of On-call and Fixed-term Employment: the Role of Uncertainty," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-120/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Boockmann, Bernhard & Hagen, Tobias, 2005. "Fixed-term Contracts as Sorting Mechanisms: Evidence From Job Durations in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-85, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Mohamed Ben Halima & Bassem Ben Halima, 2008. "Determinants for Labour Contract Length: A French Microeconometric Study," Post-Print halshs-00365976_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lia Pacelli & Silvia Pasqua & Claudia Villosio, 2008. "What does the stork bring to women's working career?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 79, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Reinowski, Eva & Sauermann, Jan, 2008. "Hat die Befristung von Arbeitsverträgen einen Einfluss auf die berufliche Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen? (Does temporary employment affect the work-related training of low-," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 41(4), pages 489-499. [Downloadable!]
  8. Miguel A. Malo & Fernando Munoz-Bullon, 2008. "Working career progress in the tourism industry: Temp-to-perm transitions in Spain," Business Economics Working Papers wb083510, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
  9. Boockmann, Bernhard & Hagen, Tobias, 2005. "Befristete und andere "atypische" Beschäftigungsverhältnisse: Wird der Arbeitsmarkt funktionsfähiger? (Fixed-term and other "atypical" employment relationship : is the labour ma," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 38(2/3), pages 305-324. [Downloadable!]
  10. Caroleo, Floro Ernesto & Pastore, Francesco, 2009. "Le cause del (l’in-)successo lavorativo dei giovani
    [The determinants of youth success in the labour market]    ," MPRA Paper 14218, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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