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Long-run Effects of Public Sector Sponsored Training in West Germany

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  • Michael Lechner

    ()

  • Ruth Miquel
  • Conny Wunsch

Abstract

Between 1991 and 1997 West Germany spent on average about 3.6 bn Euro per year on public sector sponsored training programmes for the unemployed. We base our empirical analysis on a new administrative data base that plausibly allows for selectivity correction by microeconometric matching methods. We identify the effects of different types of training programmes over a horizon of more than seven years. Using bias corrected weighted multiple neighbours matching we find that all programmes have negative effects in the short run and positive effects over a horizon of about four years. However, for substantive training programmes with duration of about two years gains in employment probabilities of more than 10% points appear to be sustainable, but come at the price of large negative lock-in effects.

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File URL: http://www1.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/dp2004/dp19_lec.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 with number 2004-19.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2004:2004-19

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Web page: http://www.seps.unisg.ch/
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Keywords: Active labour market policy; matching estimation; programme evaluation; panel data.;

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References

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  1. Michael Gerfin & Michael Lechner, 2002. "A Microeconometric Evaluation of the Active Labour Market Policy in Switzerland," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 854-893, October.
  2. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Program Evaluation and Random Program Starts," Working Paper Series 2003:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
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  7. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2003. "The determinants of participation in a social program: Evidence from a prototypical job training program," Working Paper Series 2003:10, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
  8. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel, 2005. "Identification of the Effects of Dynamic Treatments by Sequential Conditional Independence Assumptions," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-17, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
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  13. Lechner, Michael, 1999. "Earnings and Employment Effects of Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany after Unification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 74-90, January.
  14. Michael Lechner, 2004. "Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  15. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, 01.
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  17. Ours, J.C. van, 2004. "The locking-in effect of subsidized jobs," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-140882, Tilburg University.
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  20. Imbens, Guido & Abadie, Alberto, 2008. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," Scholarly Articles 3043415, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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  22. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Axel Borsch-Supan, 1990. "Smooth Unbiased Multivariate Probability Simulators for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 960, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  24. Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "An Evaluation of the Swedish System of Active Labor Market Programs in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 133-155, February.
  25. Robert G. Fay, 1996. "Enhancing the Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Programme Evaluations in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
  26. Michael Lechner, 2000. "Programme Heterogeneity and Propensity Score Matching: An Application to the Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0647, Econometric Society.
  27. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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