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The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles in an Economy with Nonclearing Markets

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Elena Casquel
Antoni Cunyat

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Abstract

This paper analyzes thes dynamics of temporary jobs in a labor market characterized by worker's skill heterogeneity and employment protection. We construct a theoretical labor market that incorporates skill differences across workers in order to identify under which conditions temporary contracts are a way for workers to access to permanent contracts (stepping stone effect) or they are dead-end jobs without any good prospect (trap effect). We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate competing risks model with multi-spells for Spain. To deal with selectivity, the model incorporates correlated unobserved determinants in the tranansition rates. Our results show the existence of two opposite dynamics of temporary contracts for skilled and unskilled workers: whereas for skilled workers temporary contracts serve as a stepping stone, unskilled workers seem to experiment a penalty, that is, they get "stuck" in temporary contracts. More importantly, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is quite important in order to obtain clear estimates.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2005-19.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2005-19

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  1. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F189-F213, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. van Ours, Jan C., 2004. "The locking-in effect of subsidized jobs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 37-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Han, Aaron & Hausman, Jerry A, 1990. "Flexible Parametric Estimation of Duration and Competing Risk Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, January-M. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Güell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2003. "How Binding Are Legal Limits? Transitions from Temporary to Permanent Work in Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 782, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  5. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & Rosholm, Michael, 2005. "Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 449-468, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gerard J. van den Berg & Anders Holm & Jan C. van Ours, 2002. "Do stepping-stone jobs exist? Early career paths in the medical profession," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 647-665. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-82, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Honore, Bo E, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(1), pages 241-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards competing risks model," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(3), pages 701-710. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Meghir, Costas & Whitehouse, Edward, 1997. "Labour market transitions and retirement of men in the UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 327-354, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Zijl, Marloes & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Heyma, Arjan, 2004. "Stepping Stones for the Unemployed: The Effect of Temporary Jobs on the Duration until Regular Work," IZA Discussion Papers 1241, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jolivet, Gregory & Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2006. "The empirical content of the job search model: Labor mobility and wage distributions in Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 877-907, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Juan J Dolado & Carlos Garcia--Serrano & Juan F. Jimeno, 2002. "Drawing Lessons From The Boom Of Temporary Jobs In Spain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(721), pages F270-F295, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Wasmer, Etienne, 1999. "Competition for Jobs in a Growing Economy and the Emergence of Dualism," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 349-71, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrés J. Marchante Mera & Bienvenido Ortega Aguaza & José Sánchez Maldonado, 2006. "Las dimensiones del bienestar en las Comunidades Autónomas Españolas. Un análisis de Sigma y Gamma-Convergencia," Working Papers 2006-05, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pedro N. Rodríguez, & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2006. "Understanding and Forecasting Stock Price Changes," Working Papers 2006-03, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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