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Landing a Permanent Contract: Do Job Interruptions and Employer Diversification Matter?

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Author Info
Yolanda Rebollo Sanz () (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

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Abstract

A discrete-time multivariate hazard model is applied to investigate whether an individual’s employment history conditions her chances of eventually obtaining a permanent contract in the Spanish labour market. This study differentiates the incidence of lagged duration dependence from occurrence dependence and individual employment history conditions are not exclusively defined in terms of the number of temporary contracts and job interruptions experienced by the worker, but also by the diversity of her past employers. My analysis focuses on Spanish labour market entrants aged between 18 and 29 for the 1995-2006 period, and performs the estimation by three age cohort groups separately to control for heterogeneity in initial conditions. The results suggest that some workers may become “trapped” in the temporary employment bracket, since their chances of obtaining a permanent contract seem to drop after some months of accumulating several temporary contracts under the same employer between bouts of unemployment. By contrast, moving from one firm to another as a temporary worker might have a positive influence on exit rates to permanent employment. Hence, this paper highlight that it is important to take into account whether or not the worker remains in the same firm when accumulating temporary contracts to test for the stepping stone effect of temporary contracts.

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File URL: http://www.upo.es/serv/bib/wps/econ0907.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 09.07.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:09.07

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Related research
Keywords: Event history model; lagged duration dependence; occurrence dependence; stepping stone effect; firm mobility; Multiple Spells duration models; Job Interruptions;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Public Policy
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

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  1. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F189-F213, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Edward P. Lazear, 2003. "Firm-Specific Human Capital: A Skill-Weights Approach," NBER Working Papers 9679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. J. Ignacio García-Pérez & Yolanda F. Rebollo Sanz, 2009. "The use of permanent contracts across Spanish regions: Do regional wage subsidies work?," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 33(1), pages 97-130, January. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 2004. "Another look at unemployment duration: exit to a permanent vs. a temporary job," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(2), pages 285-314, May. [Downloadable!]
  9. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Heckman, James J & Borjas, George J, 1980. "Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(187), pages 247-83, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ham, John C & LaLonde, Robert J, 1996. "The Effect of Sample Selection and Initial Conditions in Duration Models: Evidence from Experimental Data on Training," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(1), pages 175-205, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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