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Another look at unemployment duration: exit to a permanent vs. a temporary job

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  • Olympia Bover

    ()
    (Banco de España)

  • Ramón Gómez

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

We investigate the determinants of exit rates from unemployment to permanent and temporary jobs. First, we present a theoretical model to discuss the effects of reservation wages, unemployment benefits and job offers on the exit probabilities to permanent and temporary jobs. Then, using micro data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey we estimate a multinomial duration model, including unemployment benefits, the cycle and personal characteristics. Important differential effects are unmasked by distinguishing by type of employment. The negative impact of receiving benefits dominates the combined effect of business cycle variables in exits to temporary employment but not to permanent jobs. (Copyright: Fundación SEPI)

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Fundación SEPI in its journal Investigaciones Económicas.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 285-314

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Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:28:y:2004:i:2:p:285-314

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Postal: Investigaciones Economicas Fundación SEPI Quintana, 2 (planta 3) 28008 Madrid Spain
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Related research

Keywords: Unemployment duration; temporary vs. permanent job; unemployment benefits; business cycle;

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References

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  1. Carrasco, Raquel, 1999. " Transitions to and from Self-employment in Spain: An Empirical Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(3), pages 315-41, August.
  2. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April.
  3. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
  4. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-81, Oct.-Dec..
  5. Guido Imbens & Lisa Lynch, 2006. "Re-employment probabilities over the business cycle," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 111-134, August.
  6. Olympia Bover & Pilar García-Perea & Pedro Portugal, 2000. "Labour market outliers: Lessons from Portugal and Spain," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(31), pages 379-428, October.
  7. Narendranathan, W. & Stewart, M.B., 1989. "Modelling The Probability Of Leaving Unemployment: Competing Risks Models With Flexible Baseline Hazards," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 331, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. Pedro Portugal & John T. Addison, 1998. "Unemployment Insurance and Joblessness in Portugal," Working Papers w199804, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  9. Sueyoshi, Glenn T, 1995. "A Class of Binary Response Models for Grouped Duration Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 411-31, Oct.-Dec..
  10. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 1999. "Another Look at Unemployment Duration: Long-Term Unemployment and Exit to a Permanent Job," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9903, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Olympia Bover & Ramón Gómez, 1999. "Another Look at Unemployment Duration: Long-Term Unemployment and Exit to a Permanent Job," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9903, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Ángel Estrada & Pilar García-Perea & Mario Izquierdo, 2002. "Los flujos de trabajadores en España: el impacto del empleo temporal," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0206, Banco de Espa�a.
  13. Pablo Antolín, 1995. "Transition Probabilities To Employment And Non-Participation," Working Papers. Serie EC 1995-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  14. Alfonso Alba-Ramírez, 1998. "Re-employment probabilities of young workers in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 22(2), pages 201-224, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Tansel, Aysit & Tasci, H. Mehmet, 2010. "Hazard Analysis of Unemployment Duration by Gender in a Developing Country: The Case of Turkey," IZA Discussion Papers 4844, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Guell, Maia & Petrongolo, Barbara, 2007. "How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 153-183, April.
  3. Yolanda Rebollo Sanz, 2009. "Landing a Permanent Contract: Do Job Interruptions and Employer Diversification Matter?," Working Papers 09.07, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  4. Fabio Berton, 2008. "The (long) run out of unemployment: are temporary jobs the shortest way?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 76, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  5. Cristina Barceló, 2006. "Housing tenure and labour mobility: a comparison across European countries," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0603, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Julen ESTEBAN-PRETEL & NAKAJIMA Ryo & TANAKA Ryuichi, 2009. "Are Contingent Jobs Dead Ends or Stepping Stones to Regular Jobs? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Discussion papers 09002, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  7. Nagore García, Amparo & van Soest, Arthur, 2014. "Unemployment Transitions to Stable and Unstable Jobs Before and During the Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 8121, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. González, Xulia & Miles-Touya, Daniel, 2012. "Labor market rigidities and economic efficiency: Evidence from Spain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 833-845.
  9. Yolanda Rebollo Sanz, 2010. "Unemployment Insurance and Job Turnover in Spain," Working Papers 10.08, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2011.
  10. Mario García-Ferreira & Ernesto Villanueva, 2007. "Employment risk and household formation: evidence from differences in firing costs," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0737, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Jos Van Ommeren & Mihails Hazans, 2008. "Workers' Valuation of the Remaining Employment Contract Duration," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 116-139, 02.
  12. Fabio Berton & Francesco Devicienti & Lia Pacelli, 2007. "Temporary jobs: Port of entry, Trap, or just Unobserved Heterogeneity?," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 68, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  13. Jorge De la Roca, 2011. "Selection in initial and return migration: Evidence from moves across Spanish cities," Working Papers 2011-21, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.

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