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Making the Italian Labor Market More Flexible: An Evaluation of the Treu Reform

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  • Dario Sciulli

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Abstract

The Treu Law introduced temporary contracts and extended the applicability of fixed-term contracts in order to increase the flexibility of the labour market and to reduce unemployment. The paper inquires whether the reform has affected the duration dependence related to the out-flow from non-employment, how previous atypical contract experiences affect the probability of finding a stable job and if the probability of flowing toward a permanent contract is higher moving from a non-working state rather than from an atypical job. Applying a Mixed Proportional Hazard (MPH) model with competing risk to a sub-sample drawn from the WHIP dataset, I estimate the hazard rate for the state transitions. My main findings predict an increase in negative duration dependence for non-working state out-flow, meaning an amplification of the short-term unemployed - long-term unemployed duality. It is a consequence of the larger use of atypical contracts, that would provide a screening instrument for the hiring choices of firms. Previous atypical job experiences play a negative effect on the probability of moving toward a stable job if the origin state is a non-working condition, while they have a positive role in the transition toward an atypical job. Besides, there is no evidences that the probability of finding a permanent contract is higher for workers who move from an atypical contract rather from a non-working state. Finally, a human capital accumulation effect is found to explain the transition toward a stable job. Policy recommendations include promotion of longer contracts, implementation of training programs and services to facilitate job-search.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía in its series Economics Working Papers with number we063408.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cte:werepe:we063408

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  1. Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The identifiability of the mixed proportional hazards competing risks model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(3), pages 701-710.
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  7. Gerard J. van den Berg & Anders Holm & Jan C. van Ours, 1999. "Do Stepping Stone Jobs exist? Early Career Paths in the Medical Profession," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-041/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
  9. Gagliarducci, Stefano, 2005. "The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 429-448, August.
  10. Nickell, Stephen J, 1979. "Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1249-66, September.
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  12. Martinez-Granado, Maite, 2002. "Self-Employment and Labour Market Transitions: A Multiple State Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 3661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
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  15. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, April.
  16. Honore, Bo E, 1993. "Identification Results for Duration Models with Multiple Spells," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 241-46, January.
  17. Andrea Ichino & Fabrizia Mealli & Tommaso Nannicini, 2005. "Temporary Work Agencies in Italy: A Springboard Toward Permanent Employment?," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 64(1), pages 1-27, September.
  18. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Joanna TYROWICZ & Piotr W�JCIK, 2009. "Some Remarks On The Effects Of Active Labour Market Policies In Post-Transition," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(2(8)_ Sum).
  2. repec:tep:teppwp:wp1014 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Michella Bia & Pierre-Jean Messe & Roberto Leombruni, 2010. "Young-in Old-out: a new evaluation," Working Papers halshs-00812056, HAL.
  4. Tealdi, Cristina, 2011. "Typical and atypical employment contracts: the case of Italy," MPRA Paper 39456, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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