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Fixed-term Contracts as Sorting Mechanisms: Evidence From Job Durations in West Germany

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Author Info
Boockmann, Bernhard
Hagen, Tobias

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Abstract

We estimate the effect of initial episodes under fixed-term contracts (FTCs) on job duration in the further course of the employment spell, using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) from 1985 to 2002. Using a statistical matching approach, we find that job exit rates are initially much higher if the employment spell began with an FTC. However, exit rates fall below those of comparable spells spent entirely in permanent employment after a few years time. This suggests that FTCs accelerate a sorting process and that they may at least to some part be understood as prolonged probationary periods. Strikingly, the probability of long-term employment of more than five years duration is not lower in spells that are initially concluded as FTCs. Hence, the sorting processes taking place in both forms of contracts seem to be of similar intensity. --

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 05-85.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:4568

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Related research
Keywords: Fixed-term employment; probationary periods; job matching; duration analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Wolff, Joachim, 2004. "The Duration of New Job Matches in East and West Germany," Discussion Papers in Economics 360, University of Munich, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F189-F213, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Barbara Sianesi, 2001. "Propensity score matching," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2001 12, Stata Users Group, revised 23 Aug 2001. [Downloadable!]
  4. Booth, Alison L. & Francesconi, Marco & Frank, Jeff, 2002. "Labour as a Buffer: Do Temporary Workers Suffer?," IZA Discussion Papers 673, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Hagen, Tobias, 2003. "Do Fixed-Term Contracts Increase the Long-Term Employment Opportunities of the Unemployed?," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-49, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Boeri, Tito, 1998. "Enforcement of Employment Security Regulations, On-The-Job Search and Unemployment Duration," CEPR Discussion Papers 1850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, 2000. "Work transitions into and out of involuntary temporary employment in a segmented market: Evidence from Spain," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, ILR School, Cornell University, vol. 53(2), pages 309-325, January.
  8. Engellandt, Axel & Riphahn, Regina T., 2003. "Temporary Contracts and Employee Effort," IZA Discussion Papers 780, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Zijl, Marloes & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Heyma, Arjan, 2004. "Stepping Stones for the Unemployed: The Effect of Temporary Jobs on the Duration until Regular Work," IZA Discussion Papers 1241, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Michael Lechner, 2002. "Some practical issues in the evaluation of heterogeneous labour market programmes by matching methods," Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(1), pages 59-82. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Gibbons, Robert & Murphy, Kevin J, 1992. "Optimal Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 468-505, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Annette Bergemann & Antje Mertens, 2002. "Job Stability Trends, Layoffs and Quits - An Empirical Analysis for West Germany," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C1-4, International Conferences on Panel Data. [Downloadable!]
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  13. José Varejão & Pedro Portugal, 2003. "Why Do Firms Use Fixed-Term Contracts?," CETE Discussion Papers 0310, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Topel, Robert H & Ward, Michael P, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-79, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Johnson, William R, 1978. "A Theory of Job Shopping," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 261-78, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. James J. Heckman, 1989. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training," NBER Working Papers 2861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Robert Gibbons & Kevin J. Murphy, 1992. "Optimal Incentive Contracts in the Presence of Career Concerns: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979. "Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Bentolila, Samuel & Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "The macroeconomic impact of flexible labor contracts, with an application to Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1013-1047, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Edwin Leuven & Barbara Sianesi, 2003. "PSMATCH2: Stata module to perform full Mahalanobis and propensity score matching, common support graphing, and covariate imbalance testing," Statistical Software Components S432001, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 02 May 2009. [Downloadable!]
  21. Juan F. Jimeno & Luis Toharia, 1993. "The effects of fixed-term employment on wages: theory and evidence from Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(3), pages 475-494, September. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Boockmann, Bernhard & Steffes, Susanne, 2007. "Seniority and Job Stability: A Quantile Regression Approach Using Matched Employer-Employee Data," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-014, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Renato Faccini, 2007. "Unemployment and Within-Group Wage Inequality: Can Information Explain the Trade-Off?," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/14, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jan Sauermann, 2006. "Who invests in training if contracts are temporary? - Empirical evidence for Germany using selection correction," IWH Discussion Papers 14-06, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  4. Bernhard Boockmann & Daniel Gutknecht & Susanne Steffes, 2008. "Effects of Dismissal Protection Legislation on Individual Employment Stability in Germany," IAW Discussion Papers 45, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW). [Downloadable!]
  5. Reinowski, Eva & Sauermann, Jan, 2008. "Hat die Befristung von Arbeitsverträgen einen Einfluss auf die berufliche Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen? (Does temporary employment affect the work-related training of low-," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 41(4), pages 489-499. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eva Reinowski & Jan Sauermann, 2008. "Hat die Befristung von Arbeitsverträgen einen Einfluss auf die Weiterbildung geringqualifiziert beschäftigter Personen?," IWH Discussion Papers 2-08, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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