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Nonparametric bounds on employment and income effects of continuous vocational training in East Germany

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  • MICHAEL LECHNER

Abstract

This paper explores the potential of an approach suggested by Manski to obtain nonparametric bounds of treatment effects in evaluation studies without knowledge of the participation process. The practical concern is the estimation of the effects of continuous vocational training in East Germany. The empirical application is based on a large cross-section that covers about 0.6% of the total population in 1993. The results are rather mixed. The large width of the intervals obtained emphasize the fundamental problem of all evaluation studies without good knowledge of the relationship between potential outcomes and the participation process. However, in some cases, suitable exclusion restrictions are indeed able to bound the treatment effects strictly away from zero.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Econometrics Journal.

Volume (Year): 2 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-28

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Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:2:y:1999:i:1:p:1-28

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Keywords: Nonparametric estimation of treatment effects; Training evaluation; East Ger-man labour markets; Mikrozensus.;

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References

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  1. James J. Heckman, 1989. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs: The Case of Manpower Training," NBER Working Papers 2861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-23, May.
  3. Card, David & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1988. "Measuring the Effect of Subsidized Training Programs on Movements in and out of Employment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(3), pages 497-530, May.
  4. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Gary Burtless, 1995. "The Case for Randomized Field Trials in Economic and Policy Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 63-84, Spring.
  6. Pfeiffer, Friedhelm & Brade, Joachim, 1995. "Weiterbildung, Arbeitszeit und Lohneinkommen," ZEW Discussion Papers 95-14, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  7. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
  8. A. Werwatz, 1996. "How firm-specific is German apprenticeship training?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  9. repec:wop:humbsf:1996-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Lisa M. Lynch, 1994. "Training and the Private Sector," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number lync94-1, octubre-d.
  11. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 85-110, Spring.
  12. Lechner, Michael, 1995. "Effects of continuous off-the-job training in East Germany after unification," ZEW Discussion Papers 95-27, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lydon, Reamonn & Walker, Ian, 2004. "Welfare-to-Work, Wages and Wage Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 1144, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Lee, Sokbae & Wilke, Ralf A., 2009. "Reform of Unemployment Compensation in Germany: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis Using Register Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 193-205.
  3. Monique de Haan, 2008. "The Effect of Parents' Schooling on Child's Schooling: A Nonparametric Bounds Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-061/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Joachim Inkmann, 2001. "Accounting for Nonresponse Heterogeneity in Panel Data," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-03, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  5. List, John & Millimet, Daniel, . "Bounding the Impact of Market Experience on Rationality: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Imperfect Compliance," Departmental Working Papers 0505, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  6. Vazquez-Alvarez, R. & Melenberg, B. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 2001. "Nonparametric Bounds in the Presence of Item Nonresponse, Unfolding Brackets and Anchoring," Discussion Paper 2001-67, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Lechner, Michael, 1997. "Mikroökonometrische Evaluationsstudien : Anmerkungen zu Theorie und Praxis," Discussion Papers 555, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  8. Hendrik Jürges & Kerstin Schneider, 2005. "Dynamische Lohneffekte beruflicher Weiterbildung," MEA discussion paper series 05092, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  9. Michael White and Genevieve Knight, 2003. "Benchmarking the effectiveness of NDYP: A review of European and US literature on the microeconomic effects of labour market programmes for young people," PSI Research Discussion Series 10, Policy Studies Institute, UK.
  10. Andrew Chesher, 2002. "Local identification in nonseparable models," CeMMAP working papers CWP05/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  11. Dusan Paredes & Marcelo Lufin & Patricio Aroca, 2012. "The estimation of urban premium wage using propensity score analysis: some considerations from the spatial perspective," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 21, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2012.

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