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The Curse and Blessing of Training the Unemployed in a Changing Economy: the Case of East Germany after Unification

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Author Info
Lechner, Michael
Miquel, Ruth
Wunsch, Conny

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Abstract

We analyse the effects of government sponsored training for the unemployed conducted during East German transition. For the microeconometric analysis, we use a new, large and informative administrative database that allows us to use matching methods to reduce potential selection bias, to study different types of programmes, and to observe interesting labour market outcomes over eight years. We find that, generally, all training programmes under investigation increase long-term employment prospects and earnings. However, as an important exception, the longer training programmes are on average not helpful for their male participants. At least part of the explanation for this negative result is that caseworkers severely misjudged the structure of the future demand for skills.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5171.

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Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5171

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Related research
Keywords: active labour market policy; causal effects; gender differences; matching estimation; nonparametric identification; panel data; programme evaluation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Public Policy

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  1. Guido W. Imbens, 1999. "The Role of the Propensity Score in Estimating Dose-Response Functions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lechner, Michael, 2004. "Sequential Matching Estimation of Dynamic Causal Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1042, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  3. van Ours, Jan C., 2004. "The locking-in effect of subsidized jobs," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 37-55, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Michael Lechner, 2005. "Some practical issues in the evaluation of heterogeneous labour market programmes by matching methods," Labor and Demography 0505006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Kluve, Jochen & Lehmann, Hartmut & Schmidt, Christoph M., 1999. "Active Labor Market Policies in Poland: Human Capital Enhancement, Stigmatization or Benefit Churning," IZA Discussion Papers 30, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Prey, Hedwig, 2000. "Evaluating Public Sector Sponsored Training in East Germany," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 497-520, July.
  7. Michael Gerfin & Michael Lechner, 2002. "A Microeconometric Evaluation of the Active Labour Market Policy in Switzerland," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 854-893, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kraus, Florian & Puhani, Patrick A. & Steiner, Viktor, 1997. "Employment Effects of Publicly Financed Training Programs The East German Experience," ZEW Discussion Papers 97-33, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2004. "Long-Run Effects of Public Sector Sponsored Training in West Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1443, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jacobson, Louis & LaLonde, Robert & Sullivan, Daniel G., 2004. "Estimating the Returns to Community College Schooling for Displaced Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 1017, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Michael Lechner, 2000. "Programme Heterogeneity and Propensity Score Matching: An Application to the Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0647, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lechner, Michael, 1999. "Earnings and Employment Effects of Continuous Off-the-Job Training in East Germany after Unification," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 74-90, January.
  14. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Patrick Puhani & Viktor Steiner, 1997. "The Effectiveness and Efficiency of Active Labour Market Policies in Poland," Empirica, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 209-231, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 2004. "The Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Evidence from a Prototypical Job Training Program," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(2), pages 243-298, April. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David, 1994. "Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 609-32, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Couch, Kenneth A, 1992. "New Evidence on the Long-Term Effects of Employment Training Programs," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 380-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel, 2005. "Identification of the Effects of Dynamic Treatments by Sequential Conditional Independence Assumptions," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-17, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  20. Jespersen, Svend T. & Munch, Jakob R. & Skipper, Lars, 2008. "Costs and benefits of Danish active labour market programmes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 859-884, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen & Helga Hessenius, 1991. "East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-1), pages 1-106. [Downloadable!]
  22. Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Michael Lechner, 1999. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects of Multiple Treatments Under the Conditional Independence Assumption," IZA Discussion Papers 91, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  24. Michael Lechner, 1999. "An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 93, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  25. Hujer, Reinhard & Thomsen, Stephan L. & Zeiss, Christopher, 2004. "The Effects of Vocational Training Programmes on the Duration of Unemployment in Eastern Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 1117, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  26. Conny Wunsch, 2005. "Labour Market Policy in Germany: Institutions, Instruments and Reforms since Unification," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-06, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
  27. V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Jacob A. Klerman, 2000. "The Long-Term Gains from GAIN: A Re-Analysis of the Impacts of the California GAIN Program," NBER Working Papers 8007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Borsch-Supan, Axel & Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1993. "Smooth unbiased multivariate probability simulators for maximum likelihood estimation of limited dependent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 347-368, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Daniel Friedlander & David H. Greenberg & Philip K. Robins, 1997. "Evaluating Government Training Programs for the Economically Disadvantaged," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 1809-1855, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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