Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Sensitivity of matching-based program evaluations to the availability of control variables

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lechner, Michael

    ()

  • Wunsch, Conny

    ()

Abstract

Based on new, exceptionally informative and large German linked employer-employee administrative data, we investigate the question whether the omission of important control variables in matching estimation leads to biased impact estimates of typical active labour market programs for the unemployed. Such biases would lead to false policy conclusions about the cost-effectiveness of these expensive policies. Using newly developed Empirical Monte Carlo Study methods, we find that besides standard personal characteristics, information on individual health and firm characteristics of the last employer are particularly important for selection correction. Moreover, it is important to account for past performance on the labour market in a very detailed and flexible way. Information on job search behaviour, timing of unemployment and program start, as well as detailed regional characteristics are also relevant.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www1.vwa.unisg.ch/RePEc/usg/econwp/EWP-1105.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science in its series Economics Working Paper Series with number 1105.

as in new window
Length: 76 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2011:05

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dufourstrasse 50, CH - 9000 St.Gallen
Phone: +41 71 224 23 25
Fax: +41 71 224 31 35
Email:
Web page: http://www.seps.unisg.ch/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Training; job search assistance; matching estimation; active labour market policies.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "An Evaluation of the Swedish System of Active Labor Market Programs in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 133-155, February.
  2. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," NBER Working Papers 6699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ahmed Khwaja & Gabriel Picone & Martin Salm & Justin G. Trogdon, 2011. "A comparison of treatment effects estimators using a structural model of AMI treatment choices and severity of illness information from hospital charts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(5), pages 825-853, 08.
  4. Ours, J.C. van, 2004. "The locking-in effect of subsidized jobs," Open Access publications from Tilburg University, Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-140882, Tilburg University.
  5. Fröhlich, Markus & Lechner, Michael, 2006. "Exploiting Regional Treatment Intensity for the Evaluation of Labour Market Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2002. "Program Evaluation and Random Program Starts," Working Paper Series, Uppsala University, Department of Economics 2003:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  7. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias, 2002. "Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics," CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies CWP10/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  8. Guido Imbens & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 2008. "Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation," CeMMAP working papers, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies CWP24/08, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Osikominu, Aderonke & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Völter, Robert, 2006. "Get Training or Wait? Long-Run Employment Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research 06-39, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  10. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "The curse and blessing of training the unemployed in a changing economy : the case of East Germany after unification," IAB Discussion Paper, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] 200514, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  11. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
  12. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2010. "Active Labor Market Policy Evaluations: A Meta-Analysis," NBER Working Papers 16173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Speckesser, Stefan, 2005. "Employment effects of the provision of specific professional skills and techniques in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] 200521, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  14. Petrongolo, Barbara, 2008. "The Long-Term Effects of Job Search Requirements: Evidence from the UK JSA Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 3856, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  15. Fitzenberger, Bernd & Völter, Robert, 2007. "Long-Run Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in East Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 2630, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The Locking-in Effect of Subsidized Jobs," IZA Discussion Papers 527, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  17. Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 2003. "Does Matching Overcome Lalonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?," University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity Working Papers, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity 20035, University of Western Ontario, CIBC Centre for Human Capital and Productivity.
  18. Mueser, Peter R. & Troske, Kenneth & Gorislavsky, Alexey, 2003. "Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance," IZA Discussion Papers 786, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  19. Dorsett, Richard, 2006. "The new deal for young people: effect on the labour market status of young men," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 405-422, June.
  20. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 1998. "Propensity Score Matching Methods for Non-experimental Causal Studies," NBER Working Papers 6829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2008. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1537-1557, November.
  22. Michael Lechner & Ruth Miquel & Conny Wunsch, 2004. "Long-run Effects of Public Sector Sponsored Training in West Germany," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen 2004-19, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  23. Peter R. Mueser & Carolyn J. Heinrich & Kenneth R. Troske & Kyung-Seong Jeon & Daver C. Kahvecioglu, 2010. "New Estimates of Public Employment and Training Program Net Impacts: A Nonexperimental Evaluation of the Workforce Investment Act Program," Working Papers, Department of Economics, University of Missouri 1003, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
  24. James Heckman & Salvador Navarro-Lozano, 2004. "Using Matching, Instrumental Variables, and Control Functions to Estimate Economic Choice Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 30-57, February.
  25. Guido W. Imbens, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Exogeneity: A Review," NBER Technical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Friedlander, Daniel & Robins, Philip K, 1995. "Evaluating Program Evaluations: New Evidence on Commonly Used Nonexperimental Methods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 923-37, September.
  27. Huber, Martin & Lechner, Michael & Wunsch, Conny, 2010. "How to Control for Many Covariates? Reliable Estimators Based on the Propensity Score," IZA Discussion Papers 5268, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  28. Michael Lechner & Conny Wunsch, 2009. "Active labour market policy in East Germany," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 17(4), pages 661-702, October.
  29. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center, Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  30. Lechner, Michael & Wiehler, Stephan, 2007. "Kids or Courses? Gender Differences in the Effects of Active Labour Market Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 6267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Dolton, Peter & Smith, Jeffrey A., 2011. "The Impact of the UK New Deal for Lone Parents on Benefit Receipt," IZA Discussion Papers 5491, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  32. Stephan Thomsen, 2009. "Job Search Assistance Programs in Europe: Evaluation Methods and Recent Empirical Findings," FEMM Working Papers 09018, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
  33. Sianesi, Barbara, 2008. "Differential effects of active labour market programs for the unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 370-399, June.
  34. Joffe, Marshall M. & Ten Have, Thomas R. & Feldman, Harold I. & Kimmel, Stephen E., 2004. "Model Selection, Confounder Control, and Marginal Structural Models: Review and New Applications," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 58, pages 272-279, November.
  35. JAMES G. MacKINNON, 2006. "Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S2-S18, 09.
  36. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies," NBER Working Papers 6983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, 01.
  38. Laura Larsson, 2003. "Evaluation of Swedish Youth Labor Market Programs," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(4).
  39. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October.
  40. Wunsch, Conny & Lechner, Michael, 2007. "What Did All the Money Do? On the General Ineffectiveness of Recent West German Labour Market Programmes," IZA Discussion Papers 2800, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  41. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey A, 1999. "The Pre-programme Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Programme. Implications for Simple Programme Evaluation Strategies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 313-48, July.
  42. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
  43. Jespersen, Svend T. & Munch, Jakob R. & Skipper, Lars, 2008. "Costs and benefits of Danish active labour market programmes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 859-884, October.
  44. Shadish, William R. & Clark, M. H. & Steiner, Peter M., 2008. "Can Nonrandomized Experiments Yield Accurate Answers? A Randomized Experiment Comparing Random and Nonrandom Assignments," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1334-1344.
  45. Michael Gerfin & Michael Lechner, 2002. "A Microeconometric Evaluation of the Active Labour Market Policy in Switzerland," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 854-893, October.
  46. Abowd, John M. & Kramarz, Francis, 1999. "The analysis of labor markets using matched employer-employee data," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 40, pages 2629-2710 Elsevier.
  47. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 85-110, Spring.
  48. Thomas Fraker & Rebecca Maynard, 1987. "The Adequacy of Comparison Group Designs for Evaluations of Employment-Related Programs," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(2), pages 194-227.
  49. Fredriksson, Peter & Johansson, Per, 2008. "Dynamic Treatment Assignment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 435-445.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usg:econwp:2011:05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Martina Flockerzi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.