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Get Training or Wait? Long-Run Employment Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in West Germany

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  • Völter, Robert
  • Osikominu, Aderonke
  • Fitzenberger, Bernd

Abstract

Long-term public sector sponsored training programs often show little or negative short-run employment effects and often it is not possible to assess whether positive long-run effects exist. Based on unique administrative data, this paper estimates the long-run differential employment effects of three different types of training programs in West Germany. We use inflows into unemployment for the years 1986/87 and 1993/94 and apply local linear matching based on the estimated propensity score to estimate the effects of training programs starting during 1 to 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 8 quarters of unemployment. The results show a negative lock-in effect for the period right after the beginning of the program and significantly positive treatment effects on employment rates in the medium- and long-run. The differential effects of the three programs compared to one another are mainly driven by differences in the length of the lock-in periods. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 06-39 [rev.].

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:6885

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Keywords: multiple treatments; training programs; employment effects; local linear matching; administrative data; active labor market programs;

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  1. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "The curse and blessing of training the unemployed in a changing economy : the case of East Germany after unification," IAB Discussion Paper 200514, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  2. Lechner, Michael & Miquel, Ruth & Wunsch, Conny, 2005. "Long-run effects of public sector sponsored training in West Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 200503, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. Michael Lechner, 2000. "An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(2), pages 347-375.
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  14. Hidehiko Ichimura & Oliver Linton, 2001. "Asymptotic expansions for some semiparametric program evaluation estimators," CeMMAP working papers CWP04/01, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  15. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March.
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  18. Robert G. Fay, 1996. "Enhancing the Effectiveness of Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from Programme Evaluations in OECD Countries," OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers 18, OECD Publishing.
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