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Get Training or Wait? Long-Run Employment Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in West Germany

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  • Völter, Robert
  • Osikominu, Aderonke
  • Fitzenberger, Bernd

Abstract

Long-term public sector sponsored training programs often show little or negative short-run employment effects and often it is not possible to assess whether positive long-run effects exist. Based on unique administrative data, this paper estimates the long-run differential employment effects of three different types of training programs in West Germany. We use inflows into unemployment for the years 1986/87 and 1993/94 and apply local linear matching based on the estimated propensity score to estimate the effects of training programs starting during 1 to 2, 3 to 4, and 5 to 8 quarters of unemployment. The results show a negative lock-in effect for the period right after the beginning of the program and significantly positive treatment effects on employment rates in the medium- and long-run. The differential effects of the three programs compared to one another are mainly driven by differences in the length of the lock-in periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Völter, Robert & Osikominu, Aderonke & Fitzenberger, Bernd, 2007. "Get Training or Wait? Long-Run Employment Effects of Training Programs for the Unemployed in West Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-039 [rev.], ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:6885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multiple treatments; training programs; employment effects; local linear matching; administrative data; active labor market programs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

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