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Time and Causality: A Monte Carlo Assessment of the Timing-of-Events Approach

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Author Info
Gaure, Simen () (Centre for Information Technology Services, University of Oslo and The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)
Røed, Knut () (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)
Zhang, Tao () (The Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We present new Monte Carlo evidence regarding the feasibility of separating causality from selection within non-experimental interval-censored duration data, by means of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). Key findings are: i) the NPMLE is extremely reliable, and it accurately separates the causal effects of treatment and duration dependence from sorting effects, almost regardless of the true unobserved heterogeneity distribution; ii) the NPMLE is normally distributed, and standard errors can be computed directly from the optimally selected model; and iii)unjustified restrictions on the heterogeneity distribution, e.g., in terms of a prespecified number of support points, may cause substantial bias.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Oslo University, Department of Economics in its series Memorandum with number 19/2005.

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Length: 60 pages
Date of creation: 05 Aug 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2005_019

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, P.O Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway
Phone: 22 85 51 27
Fax: 22 85 50 35
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Web page: http://www.oekonomi.uio.no/indexe.html
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Related research
Keywords: NPMLE; treatment effect;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  14. Elbers, Chris & Ridder, Geert, 1982. "True and Spurious Duration Dependence: The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(3), pages 403-09, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. B. Cockx & C. Goebel & S. Robin, 2009. "Is income support for part-time workers a steppingstone to regular jobs? An application to young long-term unemployed women," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/561, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  2. Westlie, Lars, 2008. "Norwegian Vocational Rehabilitation Programs: Improving Employability and Preventing Disability?," Memorandum 24/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:ese:iserwp: is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Michael Svarer, 2008. "Crime and Partnerships," Economics Working Papers 2008-06, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bart Cockx & Stéphane Robin & Christian Goebel, 2006. "Income Support Policies for Part-Time Workers: A Stepping-Stone to Regular Jobs? An Application to Young Long-Term Unemployed Women in Belgium," IZA Discussion Papers 2432, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Bernt Bratsberg & Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2007. "When Minority Labor Migrants Meet the Welfare State," IZA Discussion Papers 2872, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jesper Bagger and Morten Henningsen, 2008. "Job Durations and the Job Search Model: A Two-Country, Multi-Sample Analysis," Discussion Papers 553, Research Department of Statistics Norway. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael Rosholm & Jonas Staghøj & Michael Svarer, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," Economics Working Papers 2007-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Concetta Rondinelli & Cheti Nicoletti, 2009. "The (mis)specification of discrete duration models with unobserved heterogeneity: a Monte Carlo study," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 705, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Barbara Hofmann, 2008. "Work Incentives? Ex Post Effects of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions - Evidence from West Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2008. "The Impacts of Labor Market Policies on Job Search Behavior and Post-Unemployment Job Quality," Memorandum 22/2008, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2007. "Unemployment Insurance in Welfare States: Soft Constraints and Mild Sanctions," Memorandum 13/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Dagsvik, John K., 2006. "Justifying Functional Forms in Models for Transitions between Discrete States, with Particular Reference to Employment-Unemployment Dynamics," Memorandum 06/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ekhaugen, Tyra, 2007. "Long-term Outcomes of Vocational Rehabilitation Programs: Labor Market Transitions and Job Durations for Immigrants," Memorandum 10/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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