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From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: what can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity?

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Author Info
Andrea Ichino (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy)
Fabrizia Mealli (Department of Statistics, University of Florence, Florence, Italy)
Tommaso Nannicini (Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Madrid, Spain)

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Abstract

The diffusion of temporary work agency (TWA) jobs has led to a harsh policy debate and ambiguous empirical evidence. Results for the USA, based on quasi-experimental evidence, suggest that a TWA assignment decreases the probability of finding a stable job, while results for Europe, based on the conditional independence assumption (CIA), typically reach opposite conclusions. Using data for two Italian regions, we rely on a matching estimator to show that TWA assignments can be an effective springboard to permanent employment. We also propose a simulation-based sensitivity analysis, which highlights that only for one of these two regions are our results robust to specific failures of the CIA. We conclude that European studies based on the CIA should not be automatically discarded, but should be put under the scrutiny of a sensitivity analysis like the one we propose. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.998
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File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.3/
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 305-327
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:3:p:305-327

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alison L. Booth & Marco Francesconi & Jeff Frank, 2002. "Temporary Jobs: Stepping Stones Or Dead Ends?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(480), pages F189-F213, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michael Kvasnicka, 2005. "Does Temporary Agency Work Provide a Stepping Stone to Regular Employment?," Labor and Demography 0510005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. David H. Autor & Susan Houseman, 2005. "Do Temporary Help Jobs Improve Labor Market Outcomes for Low-Skilled Workers? Evidence from 'Work First'," NBER Working Papers 11743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andersson, Pernilla & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2004. "Temporary Employment Agencies: A Route for Immigrants to Enter the Labour Market?," IZA Discussion Papers 1090, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael Lechner, 2002. "Program Heterogeneity And Propensity Score Matching: An Application To The Evaluation Of Active Labor Market Policies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 205-220, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andrea Ichino & Fabrizia Mealli & Tommaso Nannicini, 2005. "Temporary Work Agencies in Italy: A Springboard Toward Permanent Employment?," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 64(1), pages 1-27, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Marco Caliendo & Sabine Kopeinig, 2005. "Some Practical Guidance for the Implementation of Propensity Score Matching," IZA Discussion Papers 1588, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Guido W. Imbens, 2003. "Sensitivity to Exogeneity Assumptions in Program Evaluation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 126-132, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 1998. "Causal Effects in Non-Experimental Studies: Re-Evaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs," NBER Working Papers 6586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Miguel A. Malo & Fernando Muñoz-Bullón, . "Temporary help agencies and the labour market biography: A sequences-oriented approach," Studies on the Spanish Economy 132, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Tommaso NANNICINI, 2004. "The Take-off of Temporary Employment in the Italian Labor Market," Economics Working Papers ECO2004/09, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  16. Black, Dan A. & Smith, J.A.Jeffrey A., 2004. "How robust is the evidence on the effects of college quality? Evidence from matching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 99-124. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Joseph G. Altonji, Todd E. Elder, and Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
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  18. Charles Michalopoulos & Howard S. Bloom & Carolyn J. Hill, 2004. "Can Propensity-Score Methods Match the Findings from a Random Assignment Evaluation of Mandatory Welfare-to-Work Programs?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 156-179, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. James J. Heckman & Jeffrey A. Smith, 1998. "Evaluating the Welfare State," NBER Working Papers 6542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Under Exogeneity: A Review," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 4-29, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. repec:ese:iserwp: is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Antoni, Manfred & Jahn, Elke J., 2006. "Do changes in regulation affect employment duration in temporary work agencies?," IAB Discussion Paper 200618, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. René Böheim & Andrea Weber, 2006. "The effects of marginal employment on subsequent labour market outcomes," Economics working papers 2006-12, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sascha O. Becker & Marco Caliendo, 2007. "mhbounds - Sensitivity Analysis for Average Treatment Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 659, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Fredrik Andersson & Harry J. Holzer & Julia Lane, 2007. "Temporary Help Agencies and the Advancement Prospects of Low Earners," NBER Working Papers 13434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ronny Freier & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "‘Marginal Employment’: Stepping Stone or Dead End? Evaluating the German Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 3175, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  7. Ronny Freier & Viktor Steiner, 2007. ""Marginal Employment" : Stepping Stone or Dead End? Evaluating the German Experience," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 744, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Olivier Dagnelie & Philippe LeMay-Boucher, 2008. "Rosca Participation in Benin: a Commitment Issue," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 735.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
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