Estimating the causal effect of fertility on economic wellbeing: Data requirements, identifying assumptions and estimation methods
AbstractThis paper aims to answer to what extent fertility has a causal effect on households economic wellbeing-an issue that has received considerable interest in development studies and policy analysis. However, only recently has the literature begun to give importance to adequate modelling for estimation of causal effects. We discuss several strategies for causal inference, stressing that their validity must be judged on the assumptions we can plausibly formulate in a given application, which in turn depends on the richness of available data. This discussion has a general importance, representing a set of guidelines that can be helpful to choose the appropriate strategy of analysis. We contrast methods relying on the Unconfoundedness Assumption, which include regressions and propensity score matching, with Instrumental Variable methods. We discuss why they give different estimates of the causal effect using data from the Vietnam Living Standard Measurement Survey.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi in its series Working Papers with number 013.
Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: via Rontgen, 1 - 20136 Milano
Web page: http://www.dondena.unibocconi.it/
Other versions of this item:
- Bruno Arpino & Arnstein Aassve, 2013. "Estimating the causal effect of fertility on economic wellbeing: data requirements, identifying assumptions and estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 355-385, February.
- D19 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Other
- I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
- J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Imbens, Guido & Abadie, Alberto, 2008.
"On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators,"
3043415, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2008. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1537-1557, November.
- Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," NBER Technical Working Papers 0325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Molini, Vasco, 2006. "Food Security in Vietnam during the 1990s: The Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series RP2006/67, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Zhao, Zhong, 2008.
"Sensitivity of propensity score methods to the specifications,"
Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 309-319, March.
- Zhao, Zhong, 2005. "Sensitivity of Propensity Score Methods to the Specifications," IZA Discussion Papers 1873, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Angrist, Joshua D & Krueger, Alan B, 1991.
"Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014, November.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 1990. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," NBER Working Papers 3572, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Howard White, 2005.
"Child Poverty in Vietnam: Using Adult Equivalence Scales to Estimate Income-Poverty for Different Age Groups,"
Development and Comp Systems
- White, Howard & Masset, Edoardo, 2002. "Child poverty in Vietnam: using adult equivalence scales to estimate income-poverty for different age groups," MPRA Paper 777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Moav, Omer, 2001.
"Cheap Children and the Persistence of Poverty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ichino, Andrea & Mealli, Fabrizia & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2006.
"From Temporary Help Jobs to Permanent Employment: What Can We Learn from Matching Estimators and their Sensitivity?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5736, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrea Ichino & Fabrizia Mealli & Tommaso Nannicini, 2008. "From temporary help jobs to permanent employment: what can we learn from matching estimators and their sensitivity?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 305-327.
- Ichino, Andrea & Mealli, Fabrizia & Nannicini, Tommaso, 2006. "From Temporary Help Jobs to Permanent Employment: What Can We Learn from Matching Estimators and their Sensitivity?," IZA Discussion Papers 2149, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, .
- Gupta, Nabanita Datta & Dubey, Amaresh, 2003. "Poverty and Fertility - An Instrumental Variables Analysis on Indian Micro Data," Working Papers 03-11, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
- repec:ese:iserwp:2007-27 is not listed on IDEAS
- Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994.
"Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
- Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterlin, Richard A., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298.
- Tommaso Nannicini, 2007.
"Simulation-based sensitivity analysis for matching estimators,"
StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 334-350, September.
- Tommaso Nannicini, 2009. "A simulation-based sensitivity analysis for matching estimators," Italian Stata Users' Group Meetings 2008 05, Stata Users Group.
- Tommaso Nannicini, 2006. "A Simulation-Based Sensitivity Analysis for Matching Estimators," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 6, Stata Users Group.
- Hyunbae Chun & Jeungil Oh, 2002. "An instrumental variable estimate of the effect of fertility on the labour force participation of married women," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(10), pages 631-634.
- Blundell, R & Dearden, L & Sianesi, B, 2003.
"Evaluating the impact of education on earnings in the UK:models, methods and results from the NCDS,"
Open Access publications from University College London
http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
- Richard Blundell & Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2004. "Evaluating the Impact of Education on Earnings in the UK: Models, Methods and Results from the NCDS," CEE Discussion Papers 0047, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
- Richard Blundell & Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2003. "Evaluating the impact of education on earnings in the UK: Models, methods and results from the NCDS," IFS Working Papers W03/20, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, .
- Alberto Abadie & David Drukker & Jane Leber Herr & Guido W. Imbens, 2004. "Implementing matching estimators for average treatment effects in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 290-311, September.
- Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2002. "Simple and Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kim, Jungho & Aassve, Arnstein, 2006. "Fertility and its Consequence on Family Labour Supply," IZA Discussion Papers 2162, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Christiaensen, Luc & Scott, Christopher & Wodon, Quentin, 2002. "Poverty Measurement and Analysis," MPRA Paper 45362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Patricia Justino & Julie Litchfield, 2003. "Welfare in Vietnam During the 1990s: Poverty, Inequality and Poverty Dynamics," PRUS Working Papers 08, Poverty Research Unit at Sussex, University of Sussex.
- Huan Nguyen-Dinh, 1997. "A socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of fertility: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 251-271.
- Alissa Goodman & Barbara Sianesi, 2005. "Early education and children's outcomes: low long do the impacts last?," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(4), pages 513-548, December.
- Anna Baranowska, 2013. "The family size effects on female employment. Evidence from the “natural experiments” related to human reproduction," Working Papers 57, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rodolfo Baggio).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.