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Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment

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  • Melanie Arntz
  • Ralf Wilke

Abstract

Arntz M. and Wilke R. A. Unemployment duration in Germany: individual and regional determinants of local job finding, migration and subsidized employment, Regional Studies. Recent labour market reforms in Germany aim, among other things, at reducing unemployment by restricting passive unemployment measures, emphasizing local labour market policies and restructuring public employment services. This paper uses extensive individual administrative and regional aggregate data to explore the extent to which these factors are likely to contribute to the shortening of unemployment duration. For this purpose, a semi-parametric duration model with three competing exit states is estimated. The results suggest that changes in the unemployment compensation system rather than local employment policies and administrative restructuring efforts may shorten unemployment duration. In addition, determinants of the length of unemployment vary across exit states. [image omitted] Arntz M. et Wilke R. A. La duree du chomage en Allemagne: determinants individuels et regionaux de l'acces aux emplois locaux, des migrations de main d'œuvre et des emplois subventionnes, Regional Studies. Les recentes reformes du marche du travail en Allemagne visent, entre autres choses, a reduire le chomage en limitant les mesures passives de traitement du chomage, en mettant l'accent sur les politiques axees sur le marche local du travail, et en restructurant les services publics de placement. Cet article utilise un nombre considerable de donnees agregees individuelles, administratives et regionales afin d'examiner dans quelle mesure ces facteurs sont susceptibles de contribuer au raccourcissement de la duree du chomage. A cet effet, nous estimons un modele de duree semi-parametrique comportant trois etats de sortie en concurrence. Nos resultats suggerent que ce sont les changements dans le systeme d'indemnisation du chomage plutot que les politiques locales de l'emploi et les efforts de restructuration administrative qui peuvent raccourcir la duree du chomage. En outre, les determinants de la duree du chomage varient selon les etats de sortie. Risque concurrentiel Politique du marche du travail Donnees individuelles et regionales Arntz M. und Wilke R. A. Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit in Deutschland: Individuelle und regionale Determinanten der lokalen Arbeitssuche, Migration und subventionierten Beschaftigung, Regional Studies. Die jungsten Arbeitsmarktreformen in Deutschland zielen unter anderem darauf ab, die Arbeitslosigkeit durch Einschrankung passiver Arbeitslosigkeitsmassnahmen, Betonung lokaler Arbeitsmarktpolitiken und Umstrukturierung offentlicher Beschaftigungsdienste zu senken. In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir mit Hilfe umfangreicher Prozessdaten auf individueller und regional aggregierter Ebene, in welchem Umfang diese Faktoren voraussichtlich zu einer Verkurzung der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit beitragen werden. Zu diesem Zweck stellen wir eine Schatzung anhand eines semiparametrischen Verweildauermodells mit drei konkurrierenden Endzustanden auf. Unsere Ergebnisse lassen darauf schliessen, dass eine Verkurzung der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit statt durch lokale Beschaftigungspolitiken und Massnahmen zur Umstrukturierung der Verwaltung eher durch Anderungen im System der Zuwendungen fur Arbeitslose erreicht werden konnte. Daruber hinaus fallen die Determinanten fur die Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit je nach Endzustand unterschiedlich aus. Konkurrierende Risiken Arbeitsmarktpolitik Individuelle und Regionaldaten Arntz M. y Wilke R. A. Duracion del desempleo en Alemania: determinantes individuales y regionales de la busqueda de empleo local, migracion y trabajo subvencionado, Regional Studies. Con las recientes reformas del mercado laboral en Alemania se pretende entre otras cosas reducir el paro limitando las medidas pasivas del desempleo, dando prioridad a las politicas del mercado laboral a nivel local y reestructurando los servicios del empleo publico. En este articulo, utilizamos extensos datos agregados de caracter administrativo individual y regional para analizar hasta que punto es probable que estos factores contribuyan a reducir la duracion del desempleo. Para esta finalidad, calculamos un modelo de duracion semiparametrico con tres estados competitivos de salida. Nuestros resultados indican que se podria reducir la duracion del desempleo si se introdujeran cambios en el sistema de compensacion de desempleo, en vez de cambiar las politicas de empleo locales y reestructurar la administracion. Ademas, los determinantes de la duracion del desempleo varian en los diferentes estados de salida. Riesgo competitivo Politica del mercado laboral Datos individuales y regionales

Suggested Citation

  • Melanie Arntz & Ralf Wilke, 2009. "Unemployment Duration in Germany: Individual and Regional Determinants of Local Job Finding, Migration and Subsidized Employment," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 43-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:43:y:2009:i:1:p:43-61
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400701654145
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    Keywords

    JEL classifications; J61; J64; J68;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Public Policy
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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