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Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment Using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data

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Author Info
Güell, Maia (Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CEP, CEPR, CREA and IZA Bonn)
Hu, Luojia () (Northwestern University and IZA Bonn)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-ofmoments- based estimator has two important features: (1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and (2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflow composition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposed estimator using Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changes in distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a period of labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leaving unemployment for the short-term unemployed compared to the long-term unemployed becomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1079.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1079

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Related research
Keywords: repeated cross-section data; GMM; duration analysis; unemployment;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Seik Kim, . "Sample Attrition in the presence of Population Attrition," Working Papers UWEC-2009-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Seik Kim, . "Economic Assimilation of Foreign-Born Workers in the United States: An Overlapping Rotating Panel Analysis," Working Papers UWEC-2008-19, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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