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Estimating the Probability of Leaving Unemployment using Uncompleted Spells from Repeated Cross-Section Data

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  • Maia Güell
  • Luojia Hu

Abstract

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments based estimator has two important features: (1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and (2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inow composition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposed estimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changes in distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a period of labor market reform. We found that the relative probability of leaving unemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployed becomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 41.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:41

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Keywords: Repeated cross-section data; GMM; duratin analysis; unemployment;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bruce Meyer & Robert Goerge, 2011. "Errors in Survey Reporting and Imputation and Their Effects on Estimates of Food Stamp Program Participation," Working Papers 11-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  2. Stephen Bazen & Xavier Joutard & Mouhamadou M. Niang, 2012. "The Duration-Based Measurement of Unemployment: Estimation Issues and an Application to Male-Female Unemployment Differences in France," Working Papers halshs-00793056, HAL.
  3. Nikita Céspedes & Ana Paola Gutiérrez & Vanessa Belapatiño, 2014. "Determinantes de la duración del desempleo en una economía con alta informalidad," Working Papers 2014-2, Peruvian Economic Association.
  4. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements in and out of poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5550, The World Bank.
  5. Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "House lock and structural unemployment," Working Paper Series 2012-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2014. "An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 252-267.
  7. Valletta, Robert G., 2012. "House Lock and Structural Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 7002, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Seik Kim, . "Sample Attrition in the Presence of Population Attrition," Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics UWEC-2009-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  9. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2013. "Labour Market Segmentation, Clusters, Mobility and Unemployment Duration with Individual Microdata," MPRA Paper 46003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
  11. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter, 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
  12. Benjamín Villena Roldán, 2010. "Aggregate Implications of Employer Search and Recruiting Selection," Documentos de Trabajo, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile 271, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  13. Carlos Usabiaga & Fernando Núñez & Pablo Álvarez de Toledo, 2013. "Segmentación del mercado de trabajo, clusters, movilidad y duración de desempleo con datos individuales," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2013/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  14. Seik Kim, . "Economic Assimilation of Foreign-Born Workers in the United States: An Overlapping Rotating Panel Analysis," Working Papers, University of Washington, Department of Economics UWEC-2008-19, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  15. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó & Coral del Río, 2012. "Unemployment and Spell Duration during the Great Recession in the EU," Working Papers, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada 1205, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.

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