Cyclical variations in unemployment duration
AbstractIn this paper I study how individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, using unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. A compositional, an outflow, and a residual calendar-time component are identified, and they all contribute to explaining the variations in unemployment duration. Based on the analysis it is concluded that long-term unemployment is a phenomenon that is associated with periods of high unemployment, but nothing should prevent the long-term unemployed finding jobs again as aggregate unemployment eventually starts falling. In particular, there is no evidence of negative duration dependence, not even at long durations, and not when aggregate unemployment is high.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.
Volume (Year): 14 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Note: Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999
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- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
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- Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002.
"Duration Dependence in the Exit Rate out of Unemployment in Belgium: Is It True or Spurious?,"
IZA Discussion Papers
632, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23.
- Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "Unemployment durations and the pattern of duration dependence over the business cycle of British males," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 429-456, April.
- Sabine Klinger & Thomas Rothe, 2012. "The Impact of Labour Market Reforms and Economic Performance on the Matching of the Short‐term and the Long‐term Unemployed," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 59(1), pages 90-114, 02.
- Klinger, Sabine & Rothe, Thomas, 2010. "The impact of labour market reforms and economic performance on the matching of short-term and long-term unemployed," IAB Discussion Paper 201013, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Agne Lauzadyte, 2007. "A Statistical Programme Assignment Model," Economics Working Papers 2007-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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