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Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

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  • Maia Güell
  • Luojia Hu

Abstract

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. The proposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features: (1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and (2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflow composition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposed estimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changes in distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a period of labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leaving unemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployed becomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 688.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:688

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Keywords: Repeated cross-section data. GMM; duration analysis; unemployment;

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Cited by:
  1. Valletta, Robert G., 2013. "House lock and structural unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 86-97.
  2. Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "House lock and structural unemployment," Working Paper Series 2012-25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Carlos Gradín & Olga Cantó & Coral del Río, 2012. "Unemployment and Spell Duration during the Great Recession in the EU," Working Papers 1205, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
  4. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
  5. Seik Kim, . "Sample Attrition in the Presence of Population Attrition," Working Papers UWEC-2009-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  6. Benjamín Villena Roldán, 2010. "Aggregate Implications of Employer Search and Recruiting Selection," Documentos de Trabajo 271, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  7. Valletta, Robert G., 2012. "House Lock and Structural Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 7002, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Stephen Bazen & Xavier Joutard & Mouhamadou M. Niang, 2012. "The Duration-Based Measurement of Unemployment. Estimation Issues and an Application to Male-Female Unemployment Differences in France," AMSE Working Papers 1206, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
  9. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2014. "An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 252-267.
  10. Céspedes, Nikita & Gutiérrez, Ana Paola & Belapatiño, Vanessa, 2013. "Determinantes de la duración del desempleo en una economía con alta informalidad," Working Papers 2013-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  11. Seik Kim, . "Economic Assimilation of Foreign-Born Workers in the United States: An Overlapping Rotating Panel Analysis," Working Papers UWEC-2008-19, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  12. Carlos Usabiaga & Fernando Núñez & Pablo Álvarez de Toledo, 2013. "Segmentación del mercado de trabajo, clusters, movilidad y duración de desempleo con datos individuales," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2013/02, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
  13. Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter, 2013. "Measuring poverty dynamics with synthetic panels based on cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6504, The World Bank.
  14. Bruce Meyer & Robert Goerge, 2011. "Errors in Survey Reporting and Imputation and Their Effects on Estimates of Food Stamp Program Participation," Working Papers 11-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  15. Álvarez de Toledo, Pablo & Núñez, Fernando & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2013. "Labour Market Segmentation, Clusters, Mobility and Unemployment Duration with Individual Microdata," MPRA Paper 46003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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