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Duração E Taxa De Saída Do Desemprego: Evidências De Ausência De Dependência Na Duração Para As Regiões Metropolitanas Do Brasil (1984-2000)

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  • Ana Luísa Abras
  • Fabiana de Felício
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    Abstract

    The proportion of long-term unemployed (6 or more months) in the six major metropolitan areas in Brazil has grown 72% between 1986 and 2000. At the same time, the average duration of unemployment has risen 43% for the same period. This worrisome information motivates our purpose in this work: study the relation between exit probabilities and unemployment duration. Former studies for Brazil have found a negative relation between those two variables, considered the effect of the existence of a negative unemployment duration dependence. We try to respond below to what extent this is due to the heterogeneity of the unemployment group and to what extent to a true effect of duration dependence, being that question most relevant for policy-oriented decisions. In order to evaluate this matter, we uses the eyeball test proposed in Jackman and Layard (1991) applied to PME data (1984 to 2000). This test analyzes the impact of the average duration variation along the years on the probability of leaving unemployment for different duration classes, separating the effect of heterogeneity from genuine duration dependence. The results contradict former studies for Brazil since we consider that the fall in exit probabilities raises with unemployment duration due to the effect of heterogeneity of unemployed in observed and unobserved characteristics and not to unemployment negative duration dependence. Nevertheless, our findings are in accordance with studies for developed economies, with exception for England.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 169.

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    Date of creation: 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:anp:en2005:169

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    1. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
    2. Jackman, Richard & Layard, Richard, 1991. "Does Long-term Unemployment Reduce a Person's Chance of a Job? A Time-Series Test," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 58(229), pages 93-106, February.
    3. Ours, J.C. van & Berg, G. van den, 1997. "Eyeballing state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in aggregate unemployment duration data," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86869, Tilburg University.
    4. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    5. Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002. "Duration Dependence in the Exit Rate out of Unemployment in Belgium: Is It True or Spurious?," IZA Discussion Papers 632, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1998. "On the Detection of State Dependence Using Aggregate Outflow Data: Comments on Previous Studies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1422-30, September.
    7. Berg, G. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-86874, Tilburg University.
    8. Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1994. "Eyeball tests for state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity in aggregate unemployment duration data," Serie Research Memoranda 0009, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Mariângela Penido & Ana Flávia Machado, 2002. "Desemprego: evidências da duração no Brasil metropolitano," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td176, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
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