Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

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Abbring, Jaap H
van den Berg, Gerard J
van Ours, Jan C

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Abstract

In this article, we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-92. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calendar time, duration, and demographic group. We use the estimation results to provide a decomposition of aggregate U.S. unemployment dynamics in various incidence and duration components.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 19 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 436-48
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:19:y:2001:i:4:p:436-48

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Paper
- Abbring, J.H. & Berg, G.J. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1999. "Business cycles and compositional variation in U.S. unemployment," Discussion Paper 65, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
- Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg & Jan C. van Ours, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-050/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
- Abbring, Jaap H. & Berg, Gerard J. van den & Ours, Jan C. van, 1997. "Business cycles and compositional variation in U.S. unemployment," Serie Research Memoranda 0020, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1997. "Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in US Unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1702, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Michael R. Darby & John C. Haltiwanger & Mark W. Plant, 1985. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Michael R. Darby & John Haltiwanger & Mark Plant, 1984. "Unemployment-Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment Under RAtional Expectations," UCLA Economics Working Papers 339, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Darby, Michael R & Haltiwanger, John C & Plant, Mark W, 1985. "Unemployment Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment under Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 614-37, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1991. "Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence," NBER Working Papers 3664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1991. "Wage Bargaining and Unemployment Persistence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 277-92, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1979-1), pages 13-72. [Downloadable!]
Baker, Michael, 1992. "Unemployment Duration: Compositional Effects and Cyclical Variability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 313-21, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Diamond, Peter A, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 417-34, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," NBER Working Papers 3387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Blanchard, O.J. & Diamond, P., 1990. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, And Wages," Working papers 546, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
Butler, Richard J & McDonald, James B, 1986. "Trends in Unemployment Duration Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 545-57, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Pieter Serneels, 2004. "Explaining Non-Negative Duration Dependence Among the Unemployed," Development and Comp Systems 0409013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Muriel Dejemeppe & Yves Saks, 2002. "A New Light into Regional Unemployment Disparities in Belgium : Longitudinal Analysis of Grouped Duration Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002019, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
Abbring, J.H. & Berg, G.J. van den & Ours, J.C. van, 1999. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," Discussion Paper 81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Abbring, Jaap H & van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1995. "The Anatomy of Unemployment Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1202, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Abbring, J.H. & Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1994. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," Serie Research Memoranda 0024, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
- Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1785-1824, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Antoine Bommier & Thierry Magnac & Muriel Roger, 2000. "Le marché du travail à l’approche de la retraite : évolutions en France entre 1982 et 1999," Research Unit Working Papers 0211, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquee, INRA. [Downloadable!]
Muriel Dejemeppe & Bart Cockx, 2005. "Duration dependence in the exit rate out of unemployment in Belgium. Is it true or spurious?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 1-23. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002. "Duration Dependence in the Exit Rate out of Unemployment in Belgium: Is It True or Spurious?," IZA Discussion Papers 632, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Turon, Hélène, 2003. "Separability of Duration Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 754, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Durations over the Business Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 369, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Bat COCKX & Muriel DEJEMEPPE, 2002. "Do the Higher Educated Unemployed Crowd out the Lower Educated Ones in a Competition for Jobs ?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Cockx, Bart & Dejemeppe, Muriel, 2002. "Do the Higher Educated Unemployed Crowd Out the Lower Educated Ones in a Competition for Jobs," IZA Discussion Papers 541, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
Marcelle Chauvet & Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2001. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Staff Reports 132, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter & Marcelle Chauvet, 2002. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 205-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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