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The Ordered Qualitative Model For Credit Rating Transitions

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Author Info

  • Joan Jasiak

    ()
    (Department of Economics, York University)

  • D. Feng

    (CIBC, Toronto, Canada)

  • C. Gourieroux

    (CEPREMAP, CREST and University of Toronto)

Abstract

Information on the expected changes in credit quality of obligors is contained in credit migration matrices which trace out the movements of firms across ratings categories in a given period of time and in a given group of bond issuers. The rating matrices provided by Moody’s, Standard &Poor’s and Fitch became crucial inputs to many applications, including the assessment of risk on corporate credit portfolios (CreditVar) and credit derivatives pricing. We propose a factor probit model for modeling and prediction of credit rating matrices that are assumed to be stochastic and driven by a latent factor. The filtered latent factor path reveals the effect of the economic cycle on corporate credit ratings, and provides evidence in support of the PIT (point-in-time) rating philosophy. The factor probit model also yields the estimates of cross-sectional correlations in rating transitions that are documented empirically but not fully accounted for in the literature and in the regulatory rules established by the Basle Committee.

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File URL: http://dept.econ.yorku.ca/research/workingPapers/working_papers/2006/JEF06.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by York University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2006_2.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:yca:wpaper:2006_2

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Related research

Keywords: Credit Rating; Migration; Migration Correlation; Credit Risk; Probit Model; Latent Factor; Business Cycle.;

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References

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  1. Michael B. Gordy, 1998. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
  3. Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
  4. Rösch, Daniel, 2003. "Correlations and Business Cycles of Credit Risk: Evidence from Bankruptcies in Germany," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 380, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  5. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  6. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  7. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
  8. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  9. Treacy, William F. & Carey, Mark, 2000. "Credit risk rating systems at large US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-201, January.
  10. Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Albanese, Claudio & Chen, Oliver X., 2006. "Implied migration rates from credit barrier models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 607-626, February.
  12. Cheung, S., 1996. "Provincial Credit Rating in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis," Working Papers 96-6, Bank of Canada.
  13. Loffler, Gunter, 2004. "An anatomy of rating through the cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 695-720, March.
  14. Carey, Mark & Hrycay, Mark, 2001. "Parameterizing credit risk models with rating data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 197-270, January.
  15. Rosch, Daniel, 2005. "An empirical comparison of default risk forecasts from alternative credit rating philosophies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-51.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2013. "Default, Liquidity, and Crises: an Econometric Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 11(2), pages 221-262, March.
  2. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A., 2008. "Quadratic stochastic intensity and prospective mortality tables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 174-184, August.
  3. Chateau, John-Peter D., 2009. "Marking-to-model credit and operational risks of loan commitments: A Basel-2 advanced internal ratings-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 260-270, December.
  4. Irina Peaucelle, 2005. "Dynamic analysis of bankruptcy and economic waves," PSE Working Papers halshs-00590851, HAL.
  5. Alexander B. Matthies, 2013. "Empirical Research on Corporate Credit-Ratings: A Literature Review," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-003, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012. "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1593-1606.
  7. Chan, Ngai Hang & Wong, Hoi Ying & Zhao, Jing, 2012. "Structural model of credit migration," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3477-3490.
  8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Roman Matousek & Chris Stewart, 2010. "EU Banks Rating Assignments: Is there Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1009, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  9. Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2012. "Granularity adjustment for default risk factor model with cohorts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1464-1477.
  10. Dimitris Gavalas & Theodore Syriopoulos, 2014. "Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 122-143, March.
  11. Hwang, Ruey-Ching & Chung, Huimin & Chu, C.K., 2010. "Predicting issuer credit ratings using a semiparametric method," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 120-137, January.

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