Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy
AbstractThe Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach for capital determination is one of the cornerstones in the proposed revision of the Basel Committee rules for bank regulation. We evaluate the IRB approach using historical business loan portfolio data from a major Swedish bank for the period 1994 to 2000. First, we estimate a duration model that takes into account both company, loan related and macroeconomic variables. Next, we obtain a Value-at-Risktype (VaR) credit risk measure, by model-based simulations. Moreover, we study how both the bank’s credit risk and bu.er capital changes over time (had the bank been subject to the proposed rules). This approach allows us to (i) make individual forecasts of default risk conditional on company, loan and macro variables, (ii) study portfolio credit risk over time, (iii) assess to what extent the new Accord will achieve its main objective of increasing credit risk sensitivity in minimal capital charges, and (iv) compare current capital requirements to those under the proposed system. Our results show that macro conditions have great explanatory power in predicting default risk and calculating credit risk. The IRB approach, although sensitive to the choice of some horizon parameters, is an achievement in the intended direction.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 142.
Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Banking and Finance.
Internal Ratings Based approach; relative risk weights; Value-at-Risk; credit risk models;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-09-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2002-09-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MFD-2002-09-28 (Microfinance)
- NEP-RMG-2002-09-28 (Risk Management)
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