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Credit Risk Factor Modeling and the Basel II IRB Approach

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  • Hamerle, Alfred
  • Liebig, Thilo
  • Rösch, Daniel

Abstract

Default probabilities (PDs) and correlations play a crucial role in the New Basel Capital Accord. In commercial credit risk models they are an important constituent. Yet, modeling and estimation of PDs and correlations is still under active discussion. We show how the Basel II one factor model which is used to calibrate risk weights can be extended to a model for estimating PDs and correlations. The important advantage of this model is that it uses actual information about the point in time of the credit cycle. Thus, uncertainties about the parameters which are needed for Value-at-Risk calculations in portfolio models may be substantially reduced. First empirical evidence for the appropriateness of the models and underlying risk factors is given with S&P data. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2003,02.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:2226

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Related research

Keywords: Credit Risk; Credit Ratings; Probability of Default; Bank Regulation;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Simone Varotto, 2008. "An Assessment of the Internal Rating Based Approach in Basel II," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2008-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  2. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2005. "Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 43-75, October.
  3. Rosch, Daniel, 2005. "An empirical comparison of default risk forecasts from alternative credit rating philosophies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-51.
  4. Gürtler, Marc & Heithecker, Dirk, 2005. "Multi-period defaults and maturity effects on economic capital in a ratings-based default-mode model," Working Papers FW19V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  5. Andrea Cipollini & Giuseppe Missaglia, 2007. "Dynamic Factor analysis of industry sector default rates and implication for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 007, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
  6. Jan Henneke & Stefan Trück, 2005. "Auswirkungen der neuen Basler Eigenkapitalvereinbarung auf die Finanzierung von KMU," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 74(4), pages 112-124.
  7. Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Internal Ratings Systems, Implied Credit Risk and the Consistency of Banks’ Risk Classification Policies," Working Paper Series 155, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Jonathan Crook & Tony Bellotti, 2010. "Time varying and dynamic models for default risk in consumer loans," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 283-305.
  9. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  10. Gürtler, Marc & Heithecker, Dirk, 2004. "Modellkonsistente Bestimmung des LGD im IRB-Ansatz von Basel II," Working Papers FW08V3, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
  11. Dubecq, S. & Mojon, B. & Ragot, X., 2009. "Fuzzy Capital Requirements, Risk-Shifting and the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Working papers 254, Banque de France.
  12. Rodriguez, Analía, 2007. "Distribución de pérdidas de la cartera de créditos: el método unifactorial de Basilea II vs. estimaciones no paramétricas," MPRA Paper 12637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Rodríguez Dupuy, Analía, 2007. "Loan portfolio loss distribution: Basel II unifactorial approach vs. Non parametric estimations," MPRA Paper 10697, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Assetkorrelationen in Mehr-Sektoren-Kreditportfoliomodellen," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 409, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  15. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  16. Marianna Lyra, 2010. "Heuristic Strategies in Finance – An Overview," Working Papers 045, COMISEF.
  17. Düllmann, Klaus & Koziol, Philipp, 2013. "Evaluation of minimum capital requirements for bank loans to SMEs," Discussion Papers 22/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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