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US corporate default swap valuation: the market liquidity hypothesis and autonomous credit risk

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Author Info
Kwamie Dunbar

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Abstract

This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors' willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors' autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.

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File URL: http://www.informaworld.com/openurl?genre=article&doi=10.1080/14697680701397927&magic=repec&7C&7C8674ECAB8BB840C6AD35DC6213A474B5
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 8 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 321-334
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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:8:y:2008:i:3:p:321-334

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Related research
Keywords: Credit default swaps; Market liquidity; Bid-ask spreads; Autonomous credit risk; Risk premium;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  8. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
  9. Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Acharya, Viral V & Johnson, Tim, 2005. "Insider Trading in Credit Derivatives," CEPR Discussion Papers 5180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Madan, Dilip & Unal, Haluk, 2000. "A Two-Factor Hazard Rate Model for Pricing Risky Debt and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 43-65, March. [Downloadable!]
  14. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W Marsh, . "An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment-grade bonds and credit default swaps," Bank of England working papers 211, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  15. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2005. "A no-arbitrage analysis of economic determinants of the credit spread term structure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  16. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1998. "A Direct Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Derivatives," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-013, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Sanjiv R. Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1998. "A Direct Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Credit Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 6635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kwamie Dunbar, 2009. "The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach," Working papers 2009-03, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2009. [Downloadable!]
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