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The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia

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Author Info
Ericsson, Jan () (McGill University)
Jacobs, Kris (McGill University)
Oviedo-Helfenberger, Rodolfo (McGill University)

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Abstract

Using a new dataset of bid and offer quotes for credit default swaps, we investigate the relationship between theoretical determinants of default risk and actual market premia using linear regression. These theoretical determinants are firm leverage, volatility and the riskless interest rate. We find that estimated coefficients for these variables are consistent with theory and that the estimates are highly significant both statistically and economically. The explanatory power of the theoretical variables for levels of default swap premia is approximately 60%. The explanatory power for the differences in the premia is approximately 23%. Volatility and leverage by themselves also have substantial explanatory power for credit default swap premia. A principal component analysis of the residuals and the premia shows that there is only weak evidence for a residual common factor and also suggests that the theoretical variables explain a significant amount of the variation in the data. We therefore conclude that leverage, volatility and the riskfree rate are important determinants of credit default swap premia, as predicted by theory.

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Paper provided by Swedish Institute for Financial Research in its series SIFR Research Report Series with number 32.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 15 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:hhs:sifrwp:0032

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Keywords: Credit default swap Credit risk Structural model Leverage Volatility

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Bjönnes, Geir H. & Holden, Steinar & Rime, Dagfinn & Solheim, Haakon O.Aa., 2005. "'Large' vs. 'Small' Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks," SIFR Research Report Series 38, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fathi , Abid & Nader, Naifar, 2007. "Copula based simulation procedures for pricing basket Credit Derivatives," MPRA Paper 6014, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Caitlin Ann Greatrex, 2008. "The Credit Default Swap Market’s Reaction to Earnings Announcements," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-06, Fordham University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Caitlin Ann Greatrex, 2008. "The Credit Default Swap Market’s Determinants," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2008-05, Fordham University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Adam Ashcraft & Joao Santos, 2006. "Has the development of the structured credit market affected the cost of corporate debt?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov. [Downloadable!]
  7. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2006. "Arbitrage in the Foreign Exchange Market: Turning on the Microscope," SIFR Research Report Series 42, Swedish Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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