The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach
AbstractThe study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2009-03.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision: Feb 2009
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Postal: University of Connecticut 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
Phone: (860) 486-4889
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Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Dynamic Strategies; Credit Risk; Mean-Variance Analysis; Optimal Portfolio Selection; Viscosity Solution; Credit Default Swaps; Default Risk; Dynamic Control;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G0 - Financial Economics - - General
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-01-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2009-01-24 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-CMP-2009-01-24 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-RMG-2009-01-24 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kwamie Dunbar, 2008.
"US corporate default swap valuation: the market liquidity hypothesis and autonomous credit risk,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 321-334.
- Kwamie Dunbar, 2007. "US Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Market Liquidity Hypothesis and Autonomous Credit Risk," Working papers 2007-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Hakansson, Nils H, 1970. "Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk for a Class of Utility Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 38(5), pages 587-607, September.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
- Kwamie Dunbar, 2009. "Solving the Non-Linear Dynamic Asset Allocation Problem: Effects of Arbitrary Stochastic Processes and Unsystematic Risk on the Super Efficient Portfolio Space," Working papers 2009-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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