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An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between investment-grade bonds and credit default swaps

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Roberto Blanco
Simon Brennan
Ian W Marsh

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Abstract

In this paper the behaviour of credit default swaps (CDS) are analysed for a sample of firms and support found for the theoretical equivalence of CDS prices and credit spreads. When this is violated, the CDS price can be viewed as an upper bound on the price of credit risk, while the spread provides a lower bound. It is shown that the CDS market is the main forum for credit risk price discovery and that CDS prices are better integrated with firm-specific variables in the short run. Both markets equally reflect these factors in the long run, and this is primarily brought about by bond market adjustment.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 211.

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Houweling, P. & Vorst, A.C.F., 2002. "An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models," Research Paper ERS-2002-23-F&A Revision_, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  14. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
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  18. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Pierides, Yiannos A., 1997. "The pricing of credit risk derivatives," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1579-1611, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1998. "A Direct Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Derivatives," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-013, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Sanjiv R. Das & Rangarajan K. Sundaram, 1998. "A Direct Approach to Arbitrage-Free Pricing of Credit Derivatives," NBER Working Papers 6635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2004. "The comovement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: an empirical analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/20, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Norden, L. & Wagner, W.B., 2007. "Credit Derivatives and Loan Pricing," Discussion Paper 2007-015, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mark J Manning, . "Exploring the relationship between credit spreads and default probabilities," Bank of England working papers 225, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management. [Downloadable!]
  5. René M. Stulz, 2009. "Credit Default Swaps and the Credit Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2008. "Effects of liquidity on the nondefault component of corporate yield spreads: evidence from intraday transactions data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Stuart M. Turnbull & Jun Yang, 2008. "Default Dependence: The Equity Default Relationship," Working Papers 08-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Juan Ignacio Pena & Santiago Forte, 2006. "CREDIT SPREADS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE ABOUT THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF STOCKS, BONDS AND CDSs," Business Economics Working Papers wb063310, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Is Systematic Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns? A Cross-Sectional Analysis Using Credit Derivatives Prices," IMF Working Papers 06/148, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Byström, Hans N. E., 2005. "Credit Default Swaps and Equity Prices: The Itraxx CDS Index Market," Working Papers 2005:24, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 15 May 2005. [Downloadable!]
  11. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market," NBER Working Papers 10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rohan Churm & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, . "Decomposing credit spreads," Bank of England working papers 253, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christian Hawkesby & Ian W Marsh & Ibrahim Stevens, . "Comovements in the prices of securities issued by large complex financial institutions," Bank of England working papers 256, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Informational Content of Trades on the EuroMTS Platform," ISAE Working Papers 97, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
  15. C.N.V. Krishnan & Peter H. Ritchken & James B. Thomson, 2007. "On forecasting the term structure of credit spreads," Working Paper 0705, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  16. Kwamie Dunbar, 2007. "US Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Market Liquidity Hypothesis and Autonomous Credit Risk," Working papers 2007-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and Its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 06/104, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  18. Francis Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market, previously titled: "The Credit-Default Swap Market: Is Credit Protection Priced Correctly?&qu," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1176, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  19. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, 2006. "Flight-to-Quality or Flight-to-Liquidity? Evidence From the Euro-Area Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 12376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2008. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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