The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions
AbstractA new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of the stylized facts of credit rating migrations. Parameter estimation is based on Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods for which the details are discussed in this paper. A simulation experiment is carried out to show the effectiveness of the estimation procedure. An empirical application is presented for transitions in a 7 grade rating system. The model includes a common dynamic component that can be interpreted as the credit cycle. Asymmetric effects of this cycle across rating grades and additional semi-Markov dynamics are found to be statistically significant. Finally, we investigate whether the common factor model suffices to capture systematic risk in rating transition data by introducing multiple factors in the model. This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in the Journal of Econometrics , 142(1), 399-424.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 142 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom
Other versions of this item:
- Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & André Monteiro, 2005. "The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-071/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2005.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
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