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Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk

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  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Til Schuermann
  • Björn-Jakob Treutler

Abstract

The potential for portfolio diversification is driven broadly by two characteristics: the degree to which systematic risk factors are correlated with each other and the degree of dependence individual firms have to the different types of risk factors. Using a global vector autoregressive macroeconometric model accounting for about 80% of world output, we propose a model for exploring credit risk diversification across industry sectors and across different countries or regions. We find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity along with credit rating information matters a great deal for capturing differences in simulated credit loss distributions. Imposing homogeneity results in overly skewed and fat-tailed loss distributions. These differences become more pronounced in the presence of systematic risk factor shocks: increased parameter heterogeneity reduces shock sensitivity. Allowing for regional parameter heterogeneity seems to better approximate the loss distributions generated by the fully heterogeneous model than allowing just for industry heterogeneity. The regional model also exhibits less shock sensitivity.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1548.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1548

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Keywords: risk management; default dependence; economic interlinkages; portfolio choice;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 2176, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, 09.
  3. Annari de Waal & Renee van Eyden, 2013. "The impact of economic shocks in the rest of the world on South Africa: Evidence from a global VAR," Working Papers 201328, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2010. "Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-09 Financial Crisis in a GVAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2008. "Regulatory capital for market and credit risk interaction: is current regulation always conservative?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
  7. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  8. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  9. Renzo G. Avesani & Jing Li & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing tool," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Alexander Chudik & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012. "Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007–08 financial crisis and the 2010–11 sovereign debt crisis title," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  11. Thomas Breuer & Martin Jandacka & Klaus Rheinberger & Martin Summer, 2009. "How to find plausible, severe, and useful stress scenarios," Working Papers 150, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  12. Breuer, Thomas & Jandacka, Martin & Rheinberger, Klaus & Summer, Martin, 2010. "Does adding up of economic capital for market- and credit risk amount to conservative risk assessment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 703-712, April.
  13. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
  14. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Liquidity, risk and the global transmission of the 2007-08 financial crisis and the 2010-2011 sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1416, European Central Bank.

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