IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfdps/2018-014.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Management and Regulation

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Tobias Adrian

Abstract

The evolution of risk management has resulted from the interplay of financial crises, risk management practices, and regulatory actions. In the 1970s, research lay the intellectual foundations for the risk management practices that were systematically implemented in the 1980s as bond trading revolutionized Wall Street. Quants developed dynamic hedging, Value-at-Risk, and credit risk models based on the insights of financial economics. In parallel, the Basel I framework created a level playing field among banks across countries. Following the 1987 stock market crash, the near failure of Salomon Brothers, and the failure of Drexel Burnham Lambert, in 1996 the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision published the Market Risk Amendment to the Basel I Capital Accord; the amendment went into effect in 1998. It led to a migration of bank risk management practices toward market risk regulations. The framework was further developed in the Basel II Accord, which, however, from the very beginning, was labeled as being procyclical due to the reliance of capital requirements on contemporaneous volatility estimates. Indeed, the failure to measure and manage risk adequately can be viewed as a key contributor to the 2008 global financial crisis. Subsequent innovations in risk management practices have been dominated by regulatory innovations, including capital and liquidity stress testing, macroprudential surcharges, resolution regimes, and countercyclical capital requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tobias Adrian, 2018. "Risk Management and Regulation," IMF Departmental Papers / Policy Papers 2018/014, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfdps:2018/014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=45664
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    3. Rafael Repullo & Javier Suarez, 2008. "The Procyclical Effects of Basel II," Working Papers wp2008_0809, CEMFI.
    4. Eugene N. White, 2014. "Lessons from the Great American Real Estate Boom and Bust of the 1920s," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 115-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fong, H Gifford & Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1984. "A Risk Minimizing Strategy for Portfolio Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1541-1546, December.
    6. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    7. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 373-403.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    11. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    12. Eliana Balla & Morgan J. Rose, 2011. "Loan loss reserves, accounting constraints, and bank ownership structure," Working Paper 11-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    15. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1, March.
    16. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    17. Matthew Plosser & João A. C. Santos, 2014. "Banks' incentives and the quality of internal risk models," Staff Reports 704, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Fisher, Lawrence & Weil, Roman L, 1971. "Coping with the Risk of Interest-Rate Fluctuations: Returns to Bondholders from Naive and Optimal Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(4), pages 408-431, October.
    19. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    20. Goodhart,Charles, 2011. "The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107007239.
    21. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Mexico: Detailed Assessment of Observance of International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/068, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
    23. Sreedhar T. Bharath & Tyler Shumway, 2008. "Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1339-1369, May.
    24. Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simper, Richard & Dadoukis, Aristeidis & Bryce, Cormac, 2019. "European bank loan loss provisioning and technological innovative progress," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 119-130.
    2. Nenad Milojević & Srdjan Redzepagic, 2021. "Prospects of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Application in Banking Risk Management," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 41-57.
    3. Alessandro Gennaro & Michelle Nietlispach, 2021. "Corporate Governance and Risk Management: Lessons (Not) Learnt from the Financial Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-19, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    2. Giordani, Paolo & Jacobson, Tor & Schedvin, Erik von & Villani, Mattias, 2014. "Taking the Twists into Account: Predicting Firm Bankruptcy Risk with Splines of Financial Ratios," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 1071-1099, August.
    3. Huang, Hsing-Hua & Lee, Han-Hsing, 2013. "Product market competition and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-340.
    4. Sigrist, Fabio & Leuenberger, Nicola, 2023. "Machine learning for corporate default risk: Multi-period prediction, frailty correlation, loan portfolios, and tail probabilities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1390-1406.
    5. Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2021. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed-Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 361-379, March.
    6. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    7. Ye, Xiaoxia & Yu, Fan & Zhao, Ran, 2022. "Credit derivatives and corporate default prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    8. Anand Deo & Sandeep Juneja, 2019. "Credit Risk: Simple Closed Form Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Papers 1912.12611, arXiv.org.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Bjorn-Jakob Treutler, 2007. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 419-469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Chih-Kang Chu, 2013. "Forecasting forward defaults: a simple hazard model with competing risks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 1467-1477, August.
    11. Alam, Nurul & Gao, Junbin & Jones, Stewart, 2021. "Corporate failure prediction: An evaluation of deep learning vs discrete hazard models," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    12. Tian, Shaonan & Yu, Yan & Guo, Hui, 2015. "Variable selection and corporate bankruptcy forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 89-100.
    13. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Sun, Jie & Wang, Tao, 2012. "Multiperiod corporate default prediction—A forward intensity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 191-209.
    14. Hanson, Samuel G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Firm heterogeneity and credit risk diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 583-612, September.
    15. Zhou, Fanyin & Fu, Lijun & Li, Zhiyong & Xu, Jiawei, 2022. "The recurrence of financial distress: A survival analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1100-1115.
    16. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    17. Hwang, Ruey-Ching, 2012. "A varying-coefficient default model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 675-688.
    18. Ruey-Ching Hwang & Jhao-Siang Siao & Huimin Chung & C. Chu, 2011. "Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 263-273, December.
    19. Yeh, Chung-Ying & Hsu, Junming & Wang, Kai-Li & Lin, Che-Hui, 2015. "Explaining the default risk anomaly by the two-beta model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 16-33.
    20. Kay Giesecke & Francis A. Longstaff & Stephen Schaefer & Ilya Strebulaev, 2010. "Corporate Bond Default Risk: A 150-Year Perspective," NBER Working Papers 15848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DPPP; DP; market risk rule; capital requirement; financial system; risk weight; securitization risk exposure; risk manager; CDS market; repo market capacity; managing market risk; capital framework; portfolio model; risk measurement; market infrastructure; Chase Manhattan risk-adjusted capital; Credit risk; CDOs; Securities; Market risk; Loans; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfdps:2018/014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.