Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bussière, Matthieu
  • Chudik, Alexander
  • Sestieri, Giulia

Abstract

This paper uses a Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR)model in a panel of 21 emerging market and advanced economies to investigate the factors behind the dynamics of global trade flows, with a particular view on the issue of global trade imbalances and on the conditions of their unwinding. The GVAR approach enables us to make two key contributions: first, to model international linkages among a large number of countries, which is a key asset given the diversity of countries and regions involved in global imbalances, and second, to model exports and imports jointly. The latter proves to be very important due to the inter-nationalisation of production and the high import content of exports. The model can be used to gauge the effect on trade flows of various scenarios, such as an output shock in the United States, a shock to the US real effective exchange rate and shocks to foreign (German and Chinese) variables. Results indicate in particular that world exports respond much more to a (normalised) shock to US output than to a real effective depreciation of the dollar. In addition, the model can be used to monitor trade developments, such as the sharp contraction in world trade that took place in the wake of the financial crisis. While the fall in imports seems well accounted for by the model, the fall in exports of several countries remains partly unexplained, suggesting perhaps that specific factors might have been at play during the crisis. JEL Classification: F10, F17, F32, C33

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1087.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1087.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091087

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Exchange Rates; global imbalances; Global VAR; international trade; trade elasticities;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2007. "Large Panels with Common Factors and Spatial Correlations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2103, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, Hashem, 2009. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Working Paper Series 0998, European Central Bank.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
  4. Andrei A. Levchenko & Logan T. Lewis & Linda L. Tesar, 2011. "The "Collapse in Quality" Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 293-97, May.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," NBER Working Papers 5006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2007. "What if the UK or Sweden had joined the euro in 1999? An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 55-87.
  7. Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
  9. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
  10. Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith & Ron P. Smith, 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 2219, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
  12. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2009. "Weak and strong cross section dependence and estimation of large panels," Working Paper Series 1100, European Central Bank.
  13. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
  15. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
  16. Prasad, Eswar S, 1999. "International Trade and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 588-606, October.
  17. Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence," IZA Discussion Papers 1313, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  18. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  19. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
  20. George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 16059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  22. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 11137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Pesaran, M.H. & Chudik, A., 2010. "Econometric Analysis of High Dimensional VARs Featuring a Dominant Unit," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1024, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  24. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Sawyer, W. Charles & Sprinkle, Richard L., 1997. "The Demand for Imports and Exports in Japan: A Survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-259, June.
  26. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
  27. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2011. "Exports and Financial Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1841-1877.
  28. Harbo, Ingrid, et al, 1998. "Asymptotic Inference on Cointegrating Rank in Partial Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 388-99, October.
  29. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  30. Engler, Philipp & Fidora, Michael & Thimann, Christian, 2007. "External imbalances and the US current account: how supply-side changes affect an exchange rate adjustment," Working Paper Series 0761, European Central Bank.
  31. Stephen P. Magee, 1974. "U.S. Import Prices in the Currency-Contract Period," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 117-168.
  32. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Bjorn-Jakob Treutler, 2007. "Global Business Cycles and Credit Risk," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 419-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Bart Turtelboom & Peter Isard & Eswar Prasad, 1998. "Multimod Mark III: The Core Dynamic and Steady State Model," IMF Occasional Papers 164, International Monetary Fund.
  34. Bussière, Matthieu & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy – the role of emerging market economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 25/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  35. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Chudik, Alexander, 2011. "Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels," IZA Discussion Papers 5478, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  36. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  37. Jonathan Eaton & Sam Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2010. "Trade and the global recession," Working Paper Research 196, National Bank of Belgium.
  38. Mario Marazzi & Nathan Sheets & Robert J. Vigfusson & Jon Faust & Joseph Gagnon & Jaime Marquez & Robert F. Martin & Trevor Reeve & John Rogers, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: some new evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 833, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  39. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  40. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859.
  41. Kei-Mu Yi & Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2010. "Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession," IMF Working Papers 10/142, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Nigel Pain & Annabelle Mourougane & Franck Sédillot & Laurence Le Fouler, 2005. "The New OECD International Trade Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 440, OECD Publishing.
  43. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  44. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
  45. Søren Johansen, 2005. "Interpretation of Cointegrating Coefficients in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(1), pages 93-104, 02.
  46. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2011. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09," NBER Working Papers 17712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Andrew Levin & John Rogers & Ralph Tryon, 1997. "Evaluating international economic policy with the Federal Reserve's global model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 797-817.
  48. Leland Crane & Meredith Crowley & Saad Quayyum, 2007. "Understanding the evolution of trade deficits: trade elasticities of industrialized countries," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-17.
  49. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
  50. Peter Hooper & Karen Johnson & Jaime Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Peter Hooper, 1976. "Forecasting U.S. export and import prices and volumes in a changing world economy," International Finance Discussion Papers 99, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  52. Andrei A Levchenko & Logan T Lewis & Linda L Tesar, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade during the 2008–09 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(2), pages 214-253, December.
  53. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith & Takashi Yamagata & Lyudmyla Hvozdyk, 2009. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 495-521.
  54. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos & Andreas Yannopoulos, 2013. "Linkages between the euro zone and the south-eastern European countries: a global VAR analysis," Working Papers 163, Bank of Greece.
  2. Hugo Gerard, 2012. "Co-movement in Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Alexander Chudik & Michael Fidora, 2012. "How the global perspective can help us identify structural shocks," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Dec.
  4. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Andreas Yannopoulos, 2013. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European Countries: A Global VAR Analysis," Working Papers 1304, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  5. Nie, Jun & Taylor, Lisa, 2013. "Economic growth in foreign regions and U.S. export growth," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 31-63.
  6. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2010. "Exports and sectoral financial dependence: evidence on French firms during the great global crisis," Working Paper Series 1227, European Central Bank.
  7. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.
  8. Ines Buono & Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 2013. "Trade elasticity and vertical specialisation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 924, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Bussière, Matthieu & Chudik, Alexander & Sestieri, Giulia, 2009. "Modelling global trade flows: results from a GVAR model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank.
  10. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2011. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-09," NBER Working Papers 17712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Bernardina Algieri, 2011. "Modelling export equations using an unobserved component model: the case of the Euro Area and its competitors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 593-637, December.
  12. Minoas Koukouritakis & Athanasios Papadopoulos & Andreas Yannopoulos, 2013. "Linkages between the Eurozone and the South-Eastern European Countries: A VECMX* Analysis," Working Papers 1302, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  13. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "Growth Spillover Dynamics from Crisis to Recovery," IMF Working Papers 11/218, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Anderton, Robert & Tewolde, Tadios, 2011. "The global financial crisis: trying to understand the global trade downturn and recovery," Working Paper Series 1370, European Central Bank.
  15. Bilge Erten, 2012. "Macroeconomic transmission of eurozone shocks to emerging economies," Working Papers 2012-12, CEPII research center.
  16. Feldkircher, Martin, 2013. "A Global Macro Model for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 185, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.