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International Trade and the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Prasad, Eswar S

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Abstract

This paper develops a new empirical framework for analysing the dynamics of the trade balance in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks. The model provides a synthetic perspective on the conditional correlations between the business cycle and the trade balance that are generated by different shocks and attempts to reconcile these results with unconditional correlations found in the data. The results suggest that, in the post-Bretton Woods period, nominal shocks have been an important determinant of the forecast error variance for fluctuations in the trade balance in G-7 countries.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 109 (1999)
Issue (Month): 458 (October)
Pages: 588-606
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:109:y:1999:i:458:p:588-606

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  1. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2004. "What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Menzie D. Chinn & Eswar S. Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Working Papers 7581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez López & José Luis Torres Chacón, 2007. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Working Papers 07.10, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Massimo Giuliodori, . "The Empirical Relevance of a basic sticky-price intertemporal model," Working Papers 2001_17, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  5. Massimo Giuliodori, 2004. "Nominal shocks and the current account: A structural VAR analysis of 14 OECD countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(4), pages 569-591, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shruthi Jayaram, 2009. "Examining the Decoupling Hypothesis for India," Working Papers id:2119, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
  7. Menzie David Chinn & Jaewoo Lee, 2002. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/130, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Canova, Fabio, 2003. "The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America," CEPR Discussion Papers 3963, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2004. "Business Cycle Transmission from the US to Germany : a Structural Factor Approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Anton Muscatelli & Franco Spinelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Real Exchange Rates in the Long Run: Evidence from Historical Data," Working Papers 2001_6, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jens R. Clausen & Magda E. Kandil, 2005. "On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/56, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2005. "Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?," Working Papers 05-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Carlos Borondo, . "International Transmission of Monetary Shocks with Interest Rate Rule," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-04, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  14. repec:att:wimass:1920411 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 2002. "The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics," Staff Reports 155, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  16. Fabio Canova, 2003. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Economics Working Papers 925, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
  17. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2009. "Modelling Global Trade Flows: Results from a GVAR Model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Christian Richter & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2005. "A Time-Frequency Analysis of the Coherences of the US Business," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 45, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Kanda Naknoi & Allan D. Brunner, 2003. "Trade Costs, Market Integration, and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/54, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May. [Downloadable!]
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