This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A Pair-Wise Approach to Testing for Output and Growth Convergence

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Pesaran, M. Hashem () (University of Cambridge and IZA Bonn)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper proposes a pair-wise approach to testing for output convergence that considers all N(N-1)/2 possible pairs of log per capita output gaps across N economies. A general probabilistic definition of output convergence is also proposed, which suggests that all such output gap pairs must be stationary with a constant mean. The approach is compatible with individual output series having unit roots, does not involve the choice of a reference country in computation of output gaps, and can be applied when N is large relative to T (the time dimension of the panel). The proposed test is applied to output series in the Penn World Tables over 1950-2000, as well as to Maddion’s historical series over 1870-2000. Overall, the results do not support output convergence, and suggest that the findings of convergence clubs in the literature might be spurious. However, significant evidence of growth convergence is found, a result which is reasonably robust to the choice of the sample period and country groupings. Non-convergence of log per capita outputs combined with growth convergence suggests that while common technological progress seems to have been diffusing reasonably widely across economies, there are nevertheless important countryspecific factors (for example, wars, famines, revolutions, regime and institutional changes) that render output gaps highly persistent, such that we can not be sure that the probability for the outputs gaps to lie within a fixed range will be non-zero.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: ftp://repec.iza.org/RePEc/Discussionpaper/dp1313.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1313.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1313

Contact details of provider:
Postal: IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org

Order Information:
Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Mark Fallak).

Related research
Keywords: economic growth; panel data models; common technological shocks; convergence;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - General
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:att:wimass:1919983 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Durlauf, Steven N & Johnson, Paul A, 1995. "Multiple Regimes and Cross-Country Growth Behaviour," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 365-84, Oct.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Camarero, Mariam, & Flôres, R. & C. Tamarit, 2002. "Time series evidence of international output convergence in Mercosur," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 87, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. " Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dimitris , Chrsitopoulos & Miguel , Leon-Ledesma, 2009. "International Output Convergence, Breaks, and Asymmetric Adjustment," MPRA Paper 14566, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stephane Dees & Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran & L. Vanessa Smith, 2007. "Long run macroeconomic relations in the global economy," Working Paper Series 750, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Giovanni Caggiano & Leone Leonida, 2009. "International output convergence: evidence from an autocorrelation function approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 139-162. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Herman R.J. Vollebergh & Bertrand Melenberg & Elbert Dijkgraaf, 2007. "Identifying Reduced-Form Relations with Panel Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-072/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. repec:mop:credwp:08.12.79 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Matsuki, Takashi & Usami, Ryoichi, 2007. "China's Regional Convergence in Panels with Multiple Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10167, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith & Takashi Yamagata & Liudmyla Hvozdyk, 2006. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Matthieu Bussière & Alexander Chudik & Giulia Sestieri, 2009. "Modelling Global Trade Flows - Results from a GVAR Model," Working Paper Series 1087, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Arbia, G., 2004. "Alternative approaches to regional convergence exploiting both spatial and temporal information," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 22, pages 1-18, Diciembre. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Balli, Faruk & Basher, Syed & Louis, Rosmy, 2009. "Channels of risk-sharing among Canadian provinces: 1961–2006," MPRA Paper 15206, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Deckers, Thomas & Hanck, Christoph, 2009. "Multiple Testing Techniques in Growth Econometrics," MPRA Paper 17843, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter & R. Robert Russell, 2008. "Modes, weighted modes, and calibrated modes: evidence of clustering using modality tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 607-638. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? The most prolific authors have over 700 items listed on IDEAS.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.